Citation

Edwards, R., Johnson, E., Stanley, J., Waa, A., Ouimet, J., Fong, G.T. (2021). Support for New Zealand’s Smokefree 2025 goal and key measures to achieve it: Findings from the ITC New Zealand Survey. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 45(6), 554-561 .

Abstract

Objectives: To assess support among smokers and recent quitters for the Smokefree New Zealand (NZ) 2025 goal and measures to facilitate its achievement. Methods: Data from CATI interviews with 1,155 (386 Māori) smokers and recent quitters in Wave 1 (August 2016–April 2017) and 1,020 (394 Māori) in Wave 2 (June–December 2018) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) NZ Survey. Results: (Wave 2 unless stated): Almost all (95%) participants were aware of and more than half (56%) supported the smokefree goal. Support was highest (69–92%) for measures to reduce smoking uptake and protect children from exposure to secondhand smoke. Support was also high for other smokefree policies including mandated denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products (73%) and tobacco retailer licensing (70%, Wave 1). Support was lowest (<30%) for increasing the tobacco tax, but higher (59%) if additional revenue raised was used to help smokers to quit. Support for Smokefree 2025 and key measures to achieve it was generally higher among ex-smokers than smokers but mostly similar among Māori and non-Māori participants. Conclusions: There is substantial support among smokers and ex-smokers for the Smokefree 2025 goal and many measures that could help achieve it. Implications for public health: Implementing a comprehensive strategy to achieve Smokefree 2025 is likely to be acceptable among New Zealand's smokers and ex-smokers.

Citation

Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Zavala-Arciniega, L., Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M., Sáenz de Miera-Juárez, B., Yuan, Z., Li, Y., Lau, Y.K., Fleischer, N.L., Meza, R., Thrasher, J.F., Levy, D.T. (2021). The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking. PLoS One, 16(6), e0248215. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248215.

Abstract

Background: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico.

Methods: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels.

Results: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15–44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending.

Conclusions: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.

Citation

King, B., Borland, R., Le Grande, M., O’Connor, R.J., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Hatsukami, K., Cummings, K.M. (2021). Smokers’ awareness of filter ventilation, and how they believe it affects them: Findings from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Tobacco Control, [Published online June 15, doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056134].

Abstract

Background: Filter ventilation creates sensations of ‘lightness’ or ‘smoothness’ and is also highly effective for controlling machine-tested yields of tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide. Nearly all factory-made cigarettes (FMC) now have filter ventilation in countries such as Australia, Canada, the UK and the USA. Research conducted before ‘light’ and ‘mild’ labelling was banned found low smoker awareness of filter ventilation and its effects. This study explores current levels of awareness of filter ventilation and current understanding of its effects in these four countries.

Methods: We used data from the 2018 wave of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey with samples from USA, England, Canada and Australia. Analyses were conducted initially on a weighted sample of 11 844, and subsequently on 7541 daily FMC smokers.

Findings: Only 40.3% of all respondents reported being aware of filter ventilation. Among daily FMC smokers, only 9.4% believed their cigarettes had filter ventilation. Believing that their usual cigarettes are smoother was positively associated with believing they are also less harmful. Both these beliefs independently predict believing their cigarettes are ventilated (smoother OR=1.97 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.59) and less harmful OR=2.41 (95% CI 1.66 to 3.49) in relation to those believing each characteristic is average.

Interpretation: Awareness of filter ventilation is currently low, despite decades of public ‘education efforts around the misleading nature of ‘light’ and ‘mild” descriptors. Few smokers realise that their cigarettes almost certainly are vented. Smokers who believed their cigarettes have filter ventilation were more likely to believe they were both smoother and less harmful. Awareness of the technology appears to be insufficient to prevent smokers being deceived by it. Filter ventilation is inherently misleading to smokers and it is time to ban it.

Citation

Gravely, S., Craig, L., Cummings, K.M., Ouimet, J., Loewen, R., Martin, N., Chung-Hall, J., Driezen, P., Hitchman, S.C., McNeill, A., Hyland, A., Quah, A.C.K., O’Connor, R.J., Borland, R., Thompson, M.E., Boudreau, C., Fong, G.T. (2021). Smokers’ cognitive and behavioural reactions during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: Findings from the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. PLoS One, 16(6), e0252427. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252427.

July 14, 2021 | Press Release from University of Waterloo: Unlike other global crises, COVID-19 pandemic did not spark more smoking in its initial stage

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory illness, and smoking adversely impacts the respiratory and immune systems; this confluence may therefore incentivize smokers to quit. The present study, conducted in four high-income countries during the first global wave of COVID-19, examined the association between COVID-19 and: (1) thoughts about quitting smoking; (2) changes in smoking (quit attempt, reduced or increased smoking, or no change); and (3) factors related to a positive change (making a quit attempt or reducing smoking) based on an adapted framework of the Health Belief Model.

Methods: This cross-sectional study included 6,870 adult smokers participating in the Wave 3 (2020) ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey conducted in Australia, Canada, England, and United States (US). These four countries had varying responses to the pandemic by governments and public health, ranging from advising voluntary social distancing to implementing national and subnational staged lockdowns. Considering these varying responses, and the differences in the number of confirmed cases and deaths (greatest in England and the US and lowest in Australia), smoking behaviours related to COVID-19 may have differed between countries. Other factors that may be related to changes in smoking because of COVID-19 were also explored (e.g., sociodemographics, nicotine dependence, perceptions about personal and general risks of smoking on COVID-19). Regression analyses were conducted on weighted data.

Results: Overall, 46.7% of smokers reported thinking about quitting because of COVID-19, which differed by country (p<0.001): England highest (50.9%) and Australia lowest (37.6%). Thinking about quitting smoking because of COVID-19 was more frequent among: females, ethnic minorities, those with financial stress, current vapers, less dependent smokers (non-daily and fewer cigarettes smoked/day), those with greater concern about personal susceptibility of infection, and those who believe COVID-19 is more severe for smokers. Smoking behaviour changes due to COVID-19 were: 1.1% attempted to quit, 14.2% reduced smoking, and 14.6% increased smoking (70.2% reported no change). Positive behaviour change (tried to quit/reduced smoking) was reported by 15.5% of smokers, which differed by country (p = 0.02), where Australia had significantly lower rates than the other three countries. A positive behavioural smoking change was more likely among smokers with: lower dependence, greater concern about personal susceptibility to infection, and believing that COVID-19 is more severe for smokers.

Conclusions: Though nearly half of smokers reported thinking about quitting because of COVID-19, the vast majority did not change their smoking behaviour. Smokers were more likely to try and quit or reduce their smoking if they had greater concern about susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 related to smoking. Smokers in Australia were least likely to reduce or try to quit smoking, which could be related to the significantly lower impact of COVID-19 during the early phase of the pandemic, relative to the other countries.

Citation

Freitas Lemos, R, Stein, J.S., Pope, D.A., Brown, J., Feinstein, M, Stamborski, KM, Tegge, A.N., Heckman, B.W., Bickel, W.K. (2022). E-liquid purchase as a function of workplace restriction in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 30(3), 371-377.

Abstract

E-cigarette use is prohibited in most smoke-free environments. The effect of this policy on tobacco consumption could be examined using the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM). The ETM allows observation of policy on smokers’ purchasing behavior under conditions that simulate “real-world” circumstances. A within-subject design was used to evaluate the effect of workplace policy (Vaping Allowed vs. Not Allowed) and nicotine concentration (24 mg/mL vs. 0 mg/mL) on tobacco product consumption. Participants (n = 31) completed one sampling and two ETM/workplace sessions per week for 2 weeks. During the sampling session, participants were given an e-cigarette with a 2-day supply of a commercially available e-liquid of their preferred flavor. Before purchasing, participants were informed whether e-cigarette use was permitted. During the four ETM sessions, participants purchased for the following 24 hr, including the 4-hr work shift that started immediately after buying products in the ETM. The workplace session consisted of data entry tasks in a mock office environment. Participants could use any purchased tobacco products during two 15-min breaks. Condition order was counterbalanced. The results show that permitting E-cigarette use in the workplace increased e-liquid purchase on average, but nicotine concentration had no effect on e-liquid demand. Cigarette demand was unaltered across conditions. The present study suggests that allowing e-cigarette use in the workplace would increase demand for e-liquid regardless of nicotine strength. However, it would not change conventional cigarette demand.

Citation

Fong, G.T., Yuan, J., Craig, L.V., Xu, S.S., Meng, G., Quah, A.C.K., Seo, H.G., Lee, S., Yoshimi, I., Katanoda, K., Tabuchi, T. (2021). Achieving the Goals of Healthy China 2030 Depends on Increasing Smoking Cessation in China: Comparative Findings from the ITC Project in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. China CDC Weekly, 3(22), 463-467. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2021.120.

Abstract

Tobacco smoking is the number one preventable cause of disease and death in China, as it is globally. Indeed, the toll of smoking in China is much greater than its status as the world’s most populous country. There is a persistent and continuing need for China to implement the measures specified in the global tobacco control treaty, the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which China ratified in 2005. The theme for the 2021 WHO World No Tobacco Day focuses on the need to support smoking cessation. This article presents findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project cohort surveys in China, in comparison to ITC cohort surveys in two neighboring countries: Japan and the Republic of Korea. These findings demonstrate that smokers in China very much want to quit, but these intentions are not being translated into quit attempts, relative to smokers in Japan and the Republic of Korea. Additionally, about 80% of Chinese smokers want the Chinese government to do more to control smoking. These findings reaffirm the need for China to implement strong, evidence based measures to reduce smoking. The objective of Healthy China 2030 to reduce deaths from noncommunicable diseases by 30% can be achieved by reducing smoking prevalence from its current 26.6% to 20%, and this reduction can be achieved through strong implementation of FCTC measures.

Citation

Freitas Lemos, R., Stein, J.S., Tegge, A.N., Kaplan, B.A., Heckman, B.W., Cummings, K.M., Bickel, W.K. (2021). The Illegal Experimental Tobacco Marketplace I: Effects of vaping product bans. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(10), 1744–1753.

Abstract

Objectives: Banning vaping products may have unintended outcomes, such as increased demand for illegal products. This study experimentally examined the effects of a vaping ban and a flavored vaping ban on the probability of purchasing illicit vaping products, and factors affecting purchasing from a hypothetical illegal marketplace.

Methods: A crowdsourced sample of exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and frequent dual users (n=150) completed hypothetical purchasing trials in an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace under three conditions (no ban, vaping ban, flavored vaping ban). Participants chose to purchase in a hypothetical legal experimental tobacco marketplace (LETM) or illegal experimental tobacco marketplace (IETM). Vaping products were available in each marketplace depending on the condition. Other tobacco products were always available in the LETM. A hypothetical illicit purchase task with five fine amounts assessed the effect of monetary penalties.

Results: Participants from all groups were more likely to purchase from the IETM when product availability in the LETM was more restricted, with e-cigarette users being most affected. The likelihood of purchasing illegal products was systematically decreased as monetary penalties associated with the IETM increased, with e-cigarette users showing greater persistence in defending their illicit purchases.

Conclusions: Restricting vaping products from the marketplace may shift preference towards purchasing vaping products in the illegal marketplace. Nevertheless, penalties imposed on consumer's behavior might be effective in preventing illicit trade. The IETM is a methodological extension that supports the utility and flexibility of the ETM as a framework for understanding the impact of different tobacco regulatory policies.

Citation

Smith, T., Nahhas, G., Borland, R., Cho, Y., Chung-Hall, J., Fairman, R.T., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Popova, L., Thrasher, J.F., Cummings, K.M. (2021). Which tobacco control policies do smokers support? Findings from the International Tobacco Control Smoking and Vaping Survey. Preventive Medicine, 149, 106600 .

Abstract

As governments consider policy action to reduce smoking, a key factor in creating political will is the level of public support, particularly among smokers who are most affected by the policies. The goal of this paper is to assess and compare the level of support in Canada, the United States, England, and Australia for five smoking control policies: 1) banning menthol in cigarettes, 2) banning cigarette additives, 3) reducing nicotine in cigarettes to make them less addictive, 4) raising the minimum age to purchase cigarettes to 21 years and older, and 5) requiring pictorial warning labels on cigarette packs (examined in the US only). Data for these analyses come from 8165 daily cigarette smokers who responded to the 2016 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. In all countries, the highest level of support was for raising the legal age for purchase to 21 years and older (62-70%) and reducing the nicotine content of cigarettes to make them less addictive (57-70%). Smokers who were less dependent on cigarettes and those expressing interest in quitting were more likely to support all policies. When asked how they would respond to a nicotine reduction policy, the most common response given was to try the non-nicotine cigarettes to see how they liked them (42-48%), with the next most common response being to quit smoking entirely (16-24%). The high level of support for these proposed policies among daily smokers provides important evidence for policymakers to counteract claims that such policies would be unpopular.

Citation

Levy, D.T., Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Travis, N., Yuan, Z., Li, Y., Skolnick, S., Jeon, J., Tam, J., Meza, R. (2021). US nicotine vaping product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The effect of vaping and tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(9), 4876. doi:10.3390/ijerph18094876.

Abstract

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012–2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5–11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1–13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8–14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4–15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18–44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

Citation

Levy, D., Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Li, Y., Yuan, Z., Travis, N., Jarvis, M.J., Brown, J., McNeill, A. (2021). England SimSmoke: The impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England. Addiction, 116(5), 1196-1211.

Abstract

Background and Aims: Whereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England.

Design: Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP‐related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012–2019 counterfactual No‐NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking‐attributable deaths.

Setting: England, 2000–2019.

Participants: Nationally representative sample of population.

Measurements: England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies.

Findings: Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012–2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model‐predicted No‐NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP‐attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%–22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%–22.2%) for females. The NVP‐attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%–31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%–36.5%) for females ages 18–24 and 18.6% (15.2%–21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%–18.8%) for females ages 25–34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453–199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results.

Conclusions: An indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012–2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.

Citation

Yimsaard, P., McNeill, A., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Chung-Hall, J., Hawkins, S., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G.T., O’Connor, R.J., Hitchman, S.C. (2021). Gender differences in reasons for using electronic cigarettes and product characteristics: Findings from the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(4), 678-686.

Abstract

Introduction:

Little is known about why males are more likely to use electronic cigarettes (ECs) compared to females. This study examined gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of EC used (device type, device capacity, e-liquid nicotine strength, and flavour).

Methods:

Data from 3,938 current adult (18+ years) at-least-weekly EC users who participated in Wave 2 (2018) ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, the United States, England, and Australia.

Results:

Of the sample, 54% were male. The most commonly cited reasons for vaping in females were ‘less harmful to others’ (85.8%) and in males were ‘less harmful than cigarettes’ (85.5%), with females being more likely to cite ‘less harmful to others’ (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.64, p=0.001) and ‘help cut down on cigarettes’ (aOR=1.60, p=0.001) than males. Significant gender differences were found in EC device type used (χ2=35.05, p=0.043). Females were less likely to report using e-liquids containing >20 mg/ml of nicotine, and tank devices with >2ml capacity (aOR=0.41, p<0.001 and aOR=0.65, p=0.026, respectively) than males. There was no significant gender difference in use of flavoured e-liquids, with fruit being the most common flavour for both males (54.5%) and females (50.2%).

Conclusion:

There were some gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of the product used. Monitoring of gender differences in patterns of EC use would be useful to inform outreach activities and interventions for EC use.

Implications:

Our findings provide some evidence of gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of EC used. The most common reason for vaping reported by females was ‘less harmful to others’, which may reflect greater concern by female vapers about the adverse effects of second-hand smoke compared to male vapers. Gender differences might be considered when designing gender sensitive smoking cessation policies. Regarding characteristics of EC products used, we found gender differences in preferences for e-liquid nicotine strength and device capacity. Further studies should examine whether the observed gender differences in EC use reasons and product characteristics are predictive of smoking cessation. Furthermore, studies monitoring gender-based marketing of ECs may be considered.

Citation

Levy, D., Tam, J., Sanchez-Romero, L.M., Li, Y., Yuan, Z., Travis, N, Jeon, J, Meza, R. (2021). Public health implications of vaping in the USA: The smoking and vaping simulation model. Population Health Metrics, 19(1), 19. doi: 10.1186/s12963-021-00250-7.

Abstract

Background: Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.

Methods: SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.

Results: The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.

Discussion: Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.

Conclusion: The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

Citation

Levy, D., Cummings, K.M., Heckman, B.W., Li, Y., Yuan, Z., Smith, T., Meza, R. (2021). The public health gains had cigarette companies chosen to sell very low nicotine cigarettes. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(3), 438-446

Abstract

Introduction: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed lowering the nicotine content of cigarettes to a minimally addictive level to increase smoking cessation and reduce initiation. This study has two aims: (1) to determine when cigarette manufacturers had the technical capability to reduce cigarette nicotine content and (2) to estimate the lost public health benefits of implementing a standard in 1965, 1975, or 1985.

Methods: To determine the technical capability of cigarette companies, we reviewed public patents and internal cigarette company business records using the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents. To evaluate the impact of a very low nicotine content cigarette (VLNC) standard on smoking attributable deaths (SADs) and life-years lost (LYLs), we applied a validated (CISNET) model that uses past smoking data, along with estimates of the potential impact of VLNCs derived from expert elicitation.

Results: Cigarette manufacturers recognized that cigarettes were deadly and addictive before 1964. Manufacturers have had the technical capability to lower cigarette nicotine content for decades. Our model projected that a standard implemented in 1965 could have averted 21 million SADs (54% reduction) and 272 million LYLs (64% reduction) from 1965 to 2064, a standard implemented in 1975 could have averted 18.9 million SADs and 245.4 million LYLs from 1975 to 2074, and a standard implemented in 1985 could have averted 16.3 million SADs and 211.5 million LYLs from 1985 to 2084.

Conclusions: Millions of premature deaths could have been averted if companies had only sold VLNCs decades ago. FDA should act immediately to implement a VLNC standard.

Implications: Prior research has shown that a mandated reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes could reduce the prevalence of smoking and improve public health. Here we report that cigarette manufacturers have had the ability to voluntarily implement such a standard for decades. We use a well-validated model to demonstrate that millions of smoking attributable deaths and life-years lost would have been averted if the industry had implemented such a standard.

Citation

Hammond, D., Wadsworth, E., Reid, J., Burkhalter, R. (2021). Prevalence and modes of cannabis use among youth in Canada, England, and the US, 2017 to 2019. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 219, 108505.

Abstract

Objective: Cannabis markets are evolving in terms of greater diversity and potency of products. The current study examined changes in cannabis use and modes of consumption among 16- to 19-year-olds in three markets with different regulatory frameworks: England, Canada, and the United States (US).

Methods: Repeat cross-sectional online surveys were conducted in 2017, 2018, and 2019, with samples of 16- to 19-year-olds recruited from commercial panels in Canada (n = 11,779), England (n = 11,117), and the US (n = 11,869). Regression models examined changes in the prevalence of any cannabis use and use of seven modes of consumption, across the countries.

Results: Cannabis use among youth was more prevalent among respondents in Canada and the US than in England in all years and increased to a greater extent between 2017 and 2019 (p < .001 for all contrasts). Among past 30-day cannabis consumers, the prevalence of vaping oils/liquids and the use of cannabis extracts (oil, wax and shatter) increased in all countries, and was significantly higher in Canada and US. For example, the prevalence of vaping oils/liquids increased from 24.2 % in 2017 to 52.1 % in 2019 among past 30-day cannabis consumers in the US (AOR = 3.46, 95 %CI = 2.57-4.66).

Conclusion: Prevalence is increasing for the most potent categories of cannabis products, particularly among youth in Canada and the US. Future research should examine the potential risks of these products and whether shifts in modes of cannabis reflect recent permissive changes to cannabis policy.

Citation

Le Grande, M., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., McNeill, A., Thompson, M.E., Fong, G.T. (2021). Predictive power of dependence measures for quitting smoking: Findings from the 2016-2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(2), 276-285.

Abstract

Objective: To test whether urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking, have independent predictive value for quit attempts and short-term quit success over and above the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI). Methods: Data were from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 1 (2016) and Wave 2 (2018) surveys. 3661 daily smokers (daily vapers excluded) provided data in both waves. A series of multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association of each dependence measure on odds of making a quit attempt and ≥1 month smoking abstinence.

Results: Of the 3661 participants, 1594 (43.5%) reported a quit attempt. Of those who reported a quit attempt, 546 (34.9%) reported short-term quit success. Fully adjusted models showed that making quit attempts was associated with lower HSI [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.73-0.90, P < 0.001), stronger urges to smoke (aOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.20, P = 0.002), and higher perceived addiction to smoking (aOR =0.52, 95% CI 0.32-0.84, P =0.008). Lower HSI (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40–0.87, P < 0.001) weaker urges to smoke (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.76–0.95, P = 0.006), and lower perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.55, 95% CI =0.32-0.91, P = 0.021) were associated with greater odds of short-term quit success. In both cases overall R2 was around 0.5.

Conclusions: The two additional dependence measures were complementary to HSI adding explanatory power to smoking cessation models, but variance explained remains small.

Implications: Strength of urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking may significantly improve prediction of cessation attempts and short-term quit success over and above routinely assessed demographic variables and the HSI. Stratification of analyses by age group is recommended since the relationship between dependence measures and outcomes differ significantly for younger (age 18-39) compared to older (age over 40) participants. Even with the addition of these extra measures of dependence, the overall variance explained in predicting smoking cessation outcomes remains very low. These measures can only be thought of as assessing some aspects of dependence. Current understanding of the factors that ultimately determine quit success remains limited.

Abstract

Introduction: Smokeless tobacco (ST) is the predominant form of tobacco used in Bangladesh and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Bangladesh ratified the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004. There are concerns that FCTC legislation and implementation of ST control policy is insufficient in Bangladesh. The aim of this study was to investigate the achievements and challenges of ST policy in Bangladesh and its alignment with the FCTC.

Methods: We conducted semi-structured key informant interviews with 20 stakeholders from government and non-government offices and international funding agencies, including tobacco control advocates, policy makers and non-governmental organisation workers. We used NVivo software to create key themes and the framework method for thematic analysis.

Results: Our findings revealed a lack of national policy in terms of disclosure of harmful contents, illicit trade and standardised packaging of ST. Legislation remains ineffective in relation to graphical health warnings and tax measures. Challenges to ST control identified included inadequate law enforcement; paucity of research, surveillance, and evidence generation; and supply chain control. We identified lack of congruence of ST policies with FCTC due to slow progress in implementation of FCTC measures, lack of a country-specific policy and industry interference. To comply with FCTC, participants recommended strong leadership and political commitment, co-ordination between public and private sectors and proper use of tobacco control resources.

Discussion and conclusions: Bangladesh has adopted several important FCTC

Citation

East, K., Hitchman, S.C., McNeill, A., Ferguson, S., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T., Borland, R. (2021). Trends in social norms towards smoking between 2002 and 2015 among daily smokers: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC 4C). Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(1), 203-211. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntz179

Abstract

Objective: To assess trends in daily smokers’ social norms and opinions of smoking between 2002 and 2015 in Canada, US, UK and Australia.

Method: Data were from Waves-1 (2002) to -9 (2013-2015) of the longitudinal International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (Canada, US, UK, Australia), involving 23,831 adult daily smokers. Generalised estimating equation logistic regression models, adjusted for demographics and survey design effects, assessed associations of Wave and country with outcomes: (i) over half of five closest friends smoke, (ii) agreeing that people important to you believe you should not smoke, (iii) agreeing that society disapproves of smoking, and (iv) negative opinion of smoking.

Results: Between 2002 and 2015, adjusting for covariates, (i) over half of five closest friends smoke did not change (56% vs. 55%; Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]=0.95[95% Confidence Interval=0.85-1.07]), (ii) agreeing that people important to you believe you should not smoke generally decreased (89% vs. 82%; AOR=0.54[0.46-0.64]) despite an increase around 2006-2007, (iii) agreeing that society disapproves of smoking increased between 2002 and 2006-2007 (83% vs. 87%; AOR=1.38[1.24-1.54]) then decreased until 2013-2015 (78%; AOR=0.74[0.63-0.88]), and (iv) negative opinion of smoking decreased between 2002 and 2010-2011 (54% vs. 49%; AOR=0.83[0.75-0.91]) despite an increase around 2005-2006 and at the final Wave (2013-2015). Except friend smoking, Canada had the greatest, and UK the lowest, anti-smoking social norms and opinions.

Conclusions: Except friend smoking and opinion of smoking, daily smokers’ social norms became less anti-smoking between 2002 and 2015 despite increases around 2006-2007. Several potential explanations are discussed yet remain undetermined.

Implications: Increasingly comprehensive tobacco control policies alongside decreasing smoking prevalence in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia have led to the assumption that smoking has become increasingly denormalised in these countries. Absent from the literature is any formal assessment of social norms towards smoking over time. Contrary to our hypotheses, this study found that the injunctive social norms of daily smokers became less anti-smoking between 2002 and 2015, despite increases around 2006-2007. There was no change over time in the proportion of daily smokers who report that over half of their five closest friends smoke.

Citation

Callaghan, L., Yong, H., Borland, R., Cummings, K.M., Hitchman, S., Fong, G.T. (2021). What kind of smoking identity following quitting would elevate smokers relapse risk? Addictive Behaviors, 112, 106654.

Abstract

Background: Research has suggested that smokers who quit smoking and continue to identify themselves as a smoker versus a non-smoker are at greater risk of relapse. This study examines the relationship between post-quit smoker identities and relapse risk of former smokers in Australia and the UK comparing those who still identified as a smoker with firm choice to no longer smoke versus those not expressing a firm choice. Cross-country differences were examined.

Methods: Data analysed came from 544 former smokers (quit 1 month or more) who participated in the Australian and UK Waves 9 (2013) and 10 (2014) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys. Post-quit smoker identities were assessed at baseline and smoking relapse at follow-up.

Results: Baseline self-reported smoker identity independently predicted smoking relapse at 12-month follow-up (p < .01). Compared with the subgroup who identified themselves as smokers trying to quit, those who identified themselves as smokers who had chosen to no longer smoke (OR = 0.01, 95% CI = 0.01-0.25, p < .001), ex-smokers (OR = 0.05, CI = 0.01-0.25, p < .001) or non-smokers (OR = 0.07, CI = 0.02-0.37, p < .001) were less likely to relapse at follow-up. No cross-country differences were found.

Conclusions: Following quitting, smokers who maintained a smoker identity with a firm choice to no longer smoke or adopted a non-smoker or ex-smoker identity were less likely to relapse than those who failed to do so, suggesting that a clear rule/commitment to not smoke and/or a shift to a non-smoking identity may be protective of relapse.

Citation

Cheng, K.-W., Shang, C., Lee, H.M., Chaloupka, F.J., Fong, G.T., Borland, R., Heckman, B.W., Hithchman, S.C., O’Connor, R.J., Levy, D.T., Cummings, K.M. (2021). Costs of vaping: Evidence from ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Tobacco Control, 30(1), 94-97.

Abstract

Study objectives: To compare the prices paid for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and supplies among current NVP users to prices paid for cigarettes among current smokers.

Data: The 2016 International Tobacco Control Four Country Vaping and Smoking Survey (4CV1). Key measures included: (1) self-reported prices paid for reusable NVPs (eg, rechargeable devices with cartridges and tank system devices with e-liquids) in the 3-month period prior to the survey among current NVP users, (2) prices paid for disposable NVPs, cartridges and e-liquids purchased in the last 30 days among current NVP users and (3) self-reported prices paid for cigarettes among current smokers.

Results: Disposable NVP price was higher than the price of a comparable unit for combustible cigarettes in England (EN), USA and Canada (CA). Prefilled cartridge price was higher than the price of a comparable unit of cigarettes in USA and CA, but lower in EN and Australia. E-liquid price was consistently lower than the price of a comparable unit of cigarettes across four countries. For start-up costs, price of a rechargeable device is approximately 3–5 times higher than a pack of cigarettes in four countries.

Conclusion: NVP prices were generally higher than prices of combustible cigarettes, especially the high upfront NVP devices. The high upfront costs of purchasing a reusable NVP may discourage some smokers from switching to vaping. However, the average lower costs of cartridges and e-liquids relative to a package of cigarettes make switching to a NVP an attractive alternative to smoking in the long term so long as smokers switch completely to vaping.

Citation

Yong, H.H., Karmakar, C., Kusmakar, S., Borland, R., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A. (2021). Identifying factors that conjointly influence nicotine vaping product relative harm perception among smokers and recent ex-smokers: Findings from the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 218, 108370.

Abstract

Background: Use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) to replace smoking is often influenced by perceived harmfulness of these products relative to smoking. This study aimed to identify factors that conjointly influenced NVP relative harm perception among smokers and ex-smokers.

Methods: Data (n = 11,838) from adult smokers and ex-smokers (quit < 2 years) who participated in the 2016 ITC 4 Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys in Australia, Canada, England and the US were analyzed. Decision tree models were used to classify respondents into those who perceived vaping as less harmful than smoking (correct perception) versus otherwise (incorrect perception) based on their socio-demographic, smoking and vaping related variables.

Results: Decision tree analysis identified nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) harmfulness perceptions relative to smoking, perceived vaping portrayal in the media and other sources as positive, negative or balanced, recency of seeking online vaping information, and age as the key variables that interacted conjointly to classify respondents into those with correct versus incorrect harm perceptions of vaping relative to smoking (model performance accuracy = 0.70-0.74). In all countries, NRT relative harmfulness perception and vaping portrayal perception were consistently the two most important classifying variables, with other variables showing some country differences.

Conclusions: In all four countries, perception of NVP relative harmfulness among smokers and recent ex-smokers is strongly influenced by a combination of NRT relative harmfulness perception and vaping portrayal in the media and other sources. These conjoint factors can serve as useful markers for identifying subgroups more vulnerable to misperception about NVP relative harmfulness to benefit from corrective intervention.

Citation

Levy, D. T., Sweanor, D., Sanchez-Romero, L. M., O'Connor, R., Goniewicz, M. L., & Borland, R. (2020). Altria-Juul Labs deal: why did it occur and what does it mean for the US nicotine delivery product market. Tobacco control, 29(e1), e171-e174.

Citation

Meza, R., Jimenez-Mendoza, E, Levy, D. (2020). Trends in tobacco use among adolescents by grade, sex and race, 1991-2019. JAMA Network Open, 3(12), e2027465.

Abstract

Importance Use of e-cigarettes increased among adolescents between 2011 and 2019. However, whether these changes are affecting patterns of use of other tobacco products, especially cigarettes, remains unclear.

Objective To examine the long-term and recent trends in cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use among US adolescents by grade (8th, 10th, and 12th), sex (male and female), and race (White and Black).

Design, Setting, and Participants In this cross-sectional study, joinpoint regression analyses were performed to characterize trends in tobacco product use for key sociodemographic groups, identifying change of trend years (joinpoints). Students in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades at US secondary schools and high schools who participated in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future survey from January 7, 1991, to June 3, 2019, were evaluated.

Exposures Cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use during the past 30 days.

Main Outcomes and Measures Past 30-day and daily prevalence of cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use by year, grade, sex, and race. The prevalence trend segments, change of trend years (joinpoints), and annual percentage change (APC) in prevalence within each trend segment were estimated using joinpoint regression.

Results Since 1991, 487 335 8th-grade, 447 310 10th-grade, and 424 236 12th-grade students have completed the Monitoring the Future survey (including 663 663 girls and 632 698 boys [those who did not respond to the sex question in the survey were excluded from the sex analyses]). Past 30-day and daily smoking prevalence increased in all groups analyzed from 1991 until 1996 and 1997 and has been decreasing ever since, with more rapid reductions in recent years. For example, daily smoking among 12th-grade boys increased at an APC of 4.9% (95% CI, 3.5%-6.3%) from 1991 to 1998, decreased at an APC of −8.0% (95% CI, –9.3% to –6.7%) from 1998 to 2006, decreased at an APC of −1.6% (95% CI, –4.6% to 1.5%) from 2006 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of −17.4% (95% CI, –19.4% to –15.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similar results were observed for boys in the 8th grade (5.0% [95% CI, 0.1%-10.2%] for 1991-1996, –8.8% [95% CI, –10.0% to –7.6%] for 1996-2011, and –17.3% [95% CI, –22.2% to –12.0%] for 2011-2019) and 10th grade (7.1% [95% CI, 3.7%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, –11.1% [95% CI, –13.9% to –8.2%] for 1997-2005,–0.7% [95% CI, –5.9% to 4.9%] for 2005-2011, and −17.9 [95%, –21.7% to –13.9%] for 2011-2019), for girls in 8th grade (10.9% [95% CI, 5.0%-17.2%] for 1991-1996 and –10.8% [95% CI, –11.7% to –10.0% for 1996-2019), 10th grade (7.2% [95% CI, 3.9%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, –9.5% [95% CI, –10.5% to –8.6%] for 1997-2012, and –16.3% [95% CI, –21.8% to –10.4%] for 2012-2019), and 12th grade (6.5% [95% CI, 3.6%-9.5%] for 1991-1997, –7.2% [95% CI, –8.1% to –6.3%] for 1997-2012, and –17.5% [95% CI, –21.2% to –13.6%] for 2012-2019). Results were similar, too, for Black adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: –8.6% [95% CI, –10.3% to –6.8%] for 8th graders; –17.7% [95% CI, –26.3% to –8.2%] for 10th graders; and –18.3% [95% CI, –23.9% to –12.2%] for 12th graders) and White adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: –17.3% [95% CI, –20.6% to –13.7%] for 8th graders; –16.9% [95% CI, –20.5% to –13.2%] for 10th graders; and –17.0% [95% CI, –20.5% to –13.2%] for 12th graders). Smokeless tobacco was used more variably through 2012, followed by consistent decreases in the past 5 years. For instance, smokeless tobacco use in the past 30 days in 10th-grade boys decreased at an APC of –6.5% (95% CI, –7.5% to –5.4%) from 1991 to 2004, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, –0.8% to 7.1%) from 2004 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of –11.6% (95% CI, –15.7% to –7.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similarly, daily smokeless tobacco use in 12th-grade boys decreased at an APC of –3.8% (95% CI, –5.4% to –2.1%) from 1992 to 2005, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, –0.2% to 6.5%) from 2005 to 2015, and decreased at an APC of –23.0% (95% CI, –33.3% to –11.0%) from 2015 to 2019.

Conclusions and Relevance This cross-sectional study suggests that, despite the increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use among adolescents between 2011 and 2019, the prevalence of cigarette and smokeless tobacco use has decreased more rapidly during the same period compared with earlier years.

Citation

Driezen, P., Fong, G.T., Hyland, A., Craig, L., Sansone, G., Hitchman, S.C., Cummings, K.M. (2020). Self-reported exposure to secondhand smoke and support for complete smoking bans in multiunit housing among smokers from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Preventing Chronic Disease, 17, E147

Abstract

Introduction

Involuntary exposure to secondhand smoke most frequently occurs at home, which is problematic for residents of multiunit housing (MUH). The primary objective of this study was to estimate the extent of secondhand smoke incursions into the homes of MUH smokers who banned smoking in their homes but lived in buildings where smoking is allowed.

Methods

We used data from Wave 9 of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. We estimated 1) the prevalence of complete smoking bans among smokers living in single-family homes vs MUH in the United States (n = 3,208), Canada (n = 1,592), and the United Kingdom (n = 1,403) from 2013 to 2015; 2) the extent of secondhand smoke incursions into the homes of MUH smokers who banned smoking in their units but lived in buildings that allow smoking; and 3) MUH smokers’ preferences for complete smoking bans in MUH. Weighted multivariable logistic regression estimated the country-specific adjusted prevalence of all outcomes.

Results

Overall, 53.0% of smokers living in single-family homes completely banned smoking in their homes, compared with 44.8% of smokers in MUH. Across all 3 countries, only 27.8% of MUH smokers reported that smoking was completely prohibited in their building. A similar percentage of MUH smokers who banned smoking in their home but lived in buildings allowing smoking reported a secondhand smoke incursion into their home in the United States (29.9%; 95% CI, 20.4%–41.5%), Canada (38.4%; 95% CI, 26.7%–51.6%), and the United Kingdom (24.7%; 95% CI, 15.7%–36.7%). Across all 3 countries, 36.1% (95% CI, 33.4%–38.9%) of smokers in MUH reported they preferred a complete smoking ban in all building areas.

Conclusion

A need remains to educate MUH operators and residents about the benefits of comprehensive smoke-free policies.

Citation

Craig, L., Yoshimi, I., Fong, G.T., Meng, G., Yan, M., Mochizuki, Y., Tabuchi, T., Thrasher, J.F., Xu, S.S., Quah, A.C.K., Ouimet, J., Sansone, G., Chung-Hall, J. (2020). Awareness of marketing of heated tobacco products and cigarettes and support for tobacco marketing restrictions in Japan: Findings from the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(22), 8418.

Abstract

Japan is one of the world's largest cigarette markets and the top heated tobacco product (HTP) market. No forms of tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship (TAPS) are banned under national law, although the industry has some voluntary TAPS restrictions. This study examines Japanese tobacco users' self-reported exposure to cigarette and HTP marketing through eight channels, as well as their support for TAPS bans. Data are from the 2018 ITC Japan Survey, a cohort survey of adult exclusive cigarette smokers (n = 3288), exclusive HTP users (n = 164), HTP-cigarette dual users (n = 549), and non-users (n = 614). Measures of overall average exposure to the eight channels of cigarette and HTP advertising were constructed to examine differences in exposure across user groups and products. Dual users reported the highest exposure to cigarette and HTP advertising. Tobacco users (those who used cigarettes, HTPs, or both) reported higher average exposure to HTP compared to cigarette advertising, however non-users reported higher average exposure to cigarette compared to HTP advertising. Retail stores where tobacco or HTPs are sold were the most prevalent channel for HTP and cigarette advertising, reported by 30-43% of non-users to 66-71% of dual users. Non-users reported similar exposure to cigarette advertising via television and newspapers/magazines as cigarette smokers and dual users; however, advertising via websites/social media was lower among non-users and HTP users than among cigarette smokers and dual users (p < 0.05). Most respondents supported a ban on cigarette (54%) and HTP (60%) product displays in stores, and cigarette advertising in stores (58%).

Citation

Cummings, K.M., Ballin, S., Sweanor, D. (2020). The past is not the future in tobacco control. Preventive Medicine, [Published online, doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2020.106183].

Abstract

In this paper we have attempted to identify missed opportunities to change the trajectory of smoking and smoking caused diseases in America over the past 100 years. Many of the missed opportunities identified are due to the actions of cigarette manufacturers who misled the public about the dangers of cigarette smoking, the addictiveness of nicotine, and the feasibility of providing lower risk alternative nicotine delivery products to addicted smokers. An important lesson learned from the past is that treating all tobacco/nicotine products as equivalently harmful is counterproductive to public health as it only serves to protect the most lethal nicotine product - cigarettes. Since 2000, the evolving marketplace of lower risk nicotine products combined with regulatory authority over tobacco products represents a new opportunity to dramatically transform the cigarette business in ways that were never imagined when the war on tobacco was raging decades ago. However, this requires embracing risk-proportionate regulation, taxation policies, and providing consumers with accurate public messaging on product relative risks. A regulatory framework based on sound science that encourages and rewards new or existing manufacturers to invest in consumer acceptable lower risk products to replace cigarettes needs to be encouraged. The past is indeed not the future in smoking control, but it may be difficult to escape the past unless a realignment of market forces and policies can be achieved.