P01 Project 4

An Economic and Public Health Analysis of the Evolving Nicotine Marketplace

Co-Leaders: David Levy, PhD, Georgetown University; K. Michael Cummings, PhD, Medical University of South Carolina

Patterns of tobacco use have changed dramatically since product development and marketing has expanded into NVPs and HTPs. NVP use has surged, with NVPs a substitute for cigarettes but also used by youth who may not have otherwise smoked. HTP use has also surged in some countries and recently became available in the US and England. Until the recent JUUL-Altria merger, NVPs were sold primarily by non-cigarette firms. HTPs are sold exclusively by cigarette companies, which may impact how those companies market the products relative to cigarettes and NVPs. Other novel products, such as oral tobacco products are also emerging.

The goal of Project 4 is to develop simulation models to estimate the likely public health impacts of new tobacco products and the effect of new supply-oriented product regulations with the more traditional tobacco control demand-reduction policies on use patterns and attributable deaths. The three Specific Aims are: 1) to develop a framework that not only incorporates cigarette and NVP use, but other new and emerging products, such as HTPs and oral nicotine products; 2) to develop simulation models for seven countries with different regulatory frameworks and product use patterns for NVP and emerging products; and 3) to develop economic models of industry behavior to inform regulatory analysis and to better understand the impact of industry reactions to change in tobacco control policies.