Abstract

Introduction: To date, no studies have explored how different regulatory environments may influence the effectiveness of ECs as a smoking cessation aid.

Objective: This study compares the real-world effectiveness of adult smokers using ECs for quitting compared with quitting unassisted or quitting with NRT and/or prescription medications in two countries with restrictive policies towards ECs (i.e., Canada and Australia) versus two countries with less restrictive policies (i.e., US and UK).

Methods: Data were drawn from the International Tobacco Control Four Country surveys, from the US and Canada (2 waves, n=318 and 380, respectively), the UK (3 waves, n=439) and Australia (4 waves, n=662), collected 2010-2014. Smokers at baseline wave who reported making a quit attempt at follow-up were included. The primary outcome was self-reported abstinence for at least 30 days regardless of smoking status at follow-up assessment. Data across waves were combined and analysed using generalised estimating equations.

Results: Compared to unassisted quitting (i.e. no medications or ECs), smokers who used ECs for quitting from countries with less restrictive EC policy environments were more likely (OR=1.95, 95%CI=1.19-3.20, p<0.01), whereas smokers who used ECs for quitting from countries with more restrictive EC policies were less likely (OR=0.36, 95%CI=0.18-0.72, p<0.01), to report sustained abstinence for at least 30 days.

Conclusion: Use of ECs in the real world during a quit attempt appears only effective for sustaining smoking abstinence in a less restrictive EC environment suggesting that the benefits of ECs for smoking cessation are likely highly dependent on the regulatory environment.

Implications: What this study adds: This is the first study to examine the impact of regulatory environment for electronic cigarettes (ECs) on their real-world effectiveness for smoking cessation. This study shows that in a less restrictive EC regulatory environment, use of ECs during a quit attempt facilitates, but in a more restrictive environment, it inhibits, short-term sustained abstinence. The findings underscore the need for careful consideration on how best to regulate this emerging product so that EC benefits for smoking cessation are maximised and its risks to public health are minimised.

Citation

Kasza, K.A., Hyland, A., Cummings, K.M., Carpenter, M.J., Fong, G.T., Borland, R., McNeill, A. (2017). A cross-country comparison of smokers’ reasons for thinking about quitting over time: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC-4C), 2002-2015. Tobacco Control, 26(6), 641-48.

Abstract

Objective: To explore between-country differences and within-country trends over time in smokers' reasons for thinking about quitting and the relationship between reasons and making a quit attempt.

Methods: Participants were nationally representative samples of adult smokers from the UK (N=4717), Canada (N=4884), the USA (N=6703) and Australia (N=4482), surveyed as part of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey between 2002 and 2015. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate differences among countries in smokers' reasons for thinking about quitting and their association with making a quit attempt at follow-up wave.

Results: Smokers' concern for personal health was consistently the most frequently endorsed reason for thinking about quitting in each country and across waves, and was most strongly associated with making a quit attempt. UK smokers were less likely than their counterparts to endorse health concerns, but were more likely to endorse medication and quitline availability reasons. Canadian smokers endorsed the most reasons, and smokers in the USA and Australia increased in number of reasons endorsed over the course of the study period. Endorsement of health warnings, and perhaps price, appears to peak in the year or so after the change is introduced, whereas other responses were not immediately linked to policy changes.

Conclusions: Differences in reasons for thinking about quitting exist among smokers in countries with different histories of tobacco control policies. Health concern is consistently the most common reason for quitting and the strongest predictor of future attempts.

Citation

Kasza, K.A., Hyland, A., Borland, R., McNeill, A., Fong, G.T., Carpenter, M.J., Partos, T.R., Cummings, K.M. (2017). Cross-country comparison of smokers’ reasons for thinking about quitting over time: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC-4C), 2002-2015. Tobacco Control, 26(6), 641-648.

Abstract

Objective: To explore between-country differences and within-country trends over time in smokers' reasons for thinking about quitting and the relationship between reasons and making a quit attempt.

Methods: Participants were nationally representative samples of adult smokers from the UK (N=4717), Canada (N=4884), the USA (N=6703) and Australia (N=4482), surveyed as part of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey between 2002 and 2015. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate differences among countries in smokers' reasons for thinking about quitting and their association with making a quit attempt at follow-up wave.

Results: Smokers' concern for personal health was consistently the most frequently endorsed reason for thinking about quitting in each country and across waves, and was most strongly associated with making a quit attempt. UK smokers were less likely than their counterparts to endorse health concerns, but were more likely to endorse medication and quitline availability reasons. Canadian smokers endorsed the most reasons, and smokers in the USA and Australia increased in number of reasons endorsed over the course of the study period. Endorsement of health warnings, and perhaps price, appears to peak in the year or so after the change is introduced, whereas other responses were not immediately linked to policy changes.

Conclusions: Differences in reasons for thinking about quitting exist among smokers in countries with different histories of tobacco control policies. Health concern is consistently the most common reason for quitting and the strongest predictor of future attempts.

Citation

Levy, D., Yuan, Z., Li, Y. (2017). The prevalence and characteristics of e-cigarette users in the U.S. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(10), 1200.

Abstract

Studies have examined the characteristics of individuals who use e-cigarettes, including sociodemographic and smoking characteristics, and the relationship of e-cigarette use to tobacco control policies. While most studies consider a subset of these characteristics with weak measures of regular e-cigarette use, this study uses a large, recent U.S. survey to simultaneously consider the association of each of these factors with different use measures. Data from the May 2014 Tobacco Use Supplement-Current Population Survey is supplemented with information on tobacco control policies. The prevalence of ever, current (at least 1 of the last 30 days), and regular (at least 20 of the last 30 days) e-cigarette use were 7.7%, 2.1% and 0.9%, implying that 27.0% of ever users were current users of which 45.3% were regular users. E-cigarette use varied by socio-demographic characteristics and by smoking status, and depended on the measure of use adopted. However, regardless of measures, e-cigarette use was higher among those smokers who smoked more cigarettes. The association with policies was generally weak, but we found more regular use by smokers in low tax and low tobacco control spending states. The results indicate that the user characteristics differ depending on the e-cigarette use measure. The measure of use should be carefully considered in analyzing how e-cigarette use affects cigarette use.

Citation

Levy, D., Borland, R., Lindblom, E., Goniewicz, M., Meza, R., Holford, T.R., Yuan, Z., Luo, Y., O’Connor, R.J., Niaura, R., Abrams, D.B. (2018). Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes. Tobacco Control, 27(1), 18-25.

Abstract

Introduction: US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use ('vaping') in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.

Methods: A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.

Findings: Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.

Conclusions: The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm

Citation

Thomas, D., Panaretto, K., Davey, M., Lyons, L., Borland, R. (2017). Response to ‘Let’s change the conversation’. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 41(6), 650.

There is no abstract available for this publication.

Citation

Heckman, B.W., Cummings, K.M., Kasza, K.A., Borland, R., Burris, J.L., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Carpenter, M.J. (2017). Effectiveness of switching smoking cessation medications following relapse: A population-based study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 53(2), e63-e70.

Abstract

Introduction: Nicotine dependence is a chronic disorder often characterized by multiple failed quit attempts (QAs). Yet, little is known about the sequence of methods used across multiple QAs or how this may impact future ability to abstain from smoking. This prospective cohort study examines the effectiveness of switching smoking-cessation medications (SCMs) across multiple QAs.

Methods: Adult smokers (aged ≥18 years) participating in International Tobacco Control surveys in the United Kingdom, U.S., Canada, and Australia (N=795) who: (1) completed two consecutive surveys between 2006 and 2011; (2) initiated a QA at least 1 month before each survey; and (3) provided data for the primary predictor (SCM use during most recent QA), outcome (1-month point prevalence abstinence), and relevant covariates. Analyses were conducted in 2016.

Results: Five SCM user classifications were identified: (1) non-users (43.5%); (2) early users (SCM used for initial, but not subsequent QA; 11.4%); (3) later users (SCM used for subsequent, but not initial QA; 18.4%); (4) repeaters (same SCM used for both QAs; 10.7%); and (5) switchers (different SCM used for each QA; 14.2%). Abstinence rates were lower for non-users (15.9%, OR=0.48, p=0.002), early users (16.6%, OR=0.27, p=0.03), and repeaters (12.4%, OR=0.36, p=0.004) relative to switchers (28.5%).

Conclusions: Findings suggest smokers will be more successful if they use a SCM in QAs and vary the SCM they use across time. That smokers can increase their odds of quitting by switching SCMs is an important message that could be communicated to smokers.

Citation

Partos, T.R., Gilmore, A., Hitchman, S.C., Hiscock, R., Branston, R., McNeill, A. (2018). Availability and use of cheap tobacco in the United Kingdom 2002-2014: findings from the International Tobacco Control Project. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 20(6), 714-24.

Abstract

Introduction: Raising tobacco prices is the most effective population-level intervention for reducing smoking, but this is undermined by the availability of cheap tobacco. This study monitors trends in cheap tobacco use among adult smokers in the United Kingdom between 2002 and 2014 via changes in product type, purchase source, and prices paid.

Methods: Weighted data from 10 waves of the International Tobacco Control policy evaluation study were used. This is a longitudinal cohort study of adult smokers with replenishment; 6169 participants provided 15812 responses. Analyses contrasted (1) product type: roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, factory-made packs (FM-P), and factory-made cartons (FM-C); (2) purchase source: UK store-based sources (e.g., supermarkets and convenience stores) with non-UK/nonstore sources representing tax avoidance/evasion (e.g., outside the UK, duty free, and informal sellers); and (3) prices paid (inflation-adjusted to 2014 values). Generalized estimating equations tested linear changes over time.

Results: (1) RYO use increased significantly over time as FM decreased. (2) UK store-based sources constituted approximately 80% of purchases over time, with no significant increases in tax avoidance/evasion. (3) Median RYO prices were less than half that of FM, with FM-C cheaper than FM-P. Non-UK/nonstore sources were cheapest. Price increases of all three product types from UK store-based sources from 2002 to 2014 were statistically significant but not substantial. Wide (and increasing for FM-P) price ranges meant each product type could be purchased in 2014 at prices below their 2002 medians from UK store-based sources.

Conclusions: Options exist driving UK smokers to minimize their tobacco expenditure; smokers do so largely by purchasing cheap tobacco products from UK stores.

Implications: The effectiveness of price increases as a deterrent to smoking is being undermined by the availability of cheap tobacco such as roll-your-own tobacco and cartons of packs of factory-made cigarettes. Wide price ranges allowed smokers in 2014 to easily obtain cigarettes at prices comparable to 12 years prior, without resorting to tax avoidance or evasion. UK store-based sources accounted for 80% or more of all tobacco purchases between 2002 and 2014, suggesting little change in tax avoidance or evasion over time. There was a widening price range between the cheapest and most expensive factory-made cigarettes.

Citation

Mutti-Packer, S., Reid, J.L., Thrasher, J.F., Romer, D., Fong, G.T., Gupta, P.C., Pednekar, M.S., Nargis, N., Hammond, D. (2017). The role of negative affect and message credibility in perceived effectiveness of smokeless tobacco health warning labels in Navi Mumbai, India and Dhaka, Bangladesh: A moderated-mediation analysis. Addictive Behaviours, 73, 22-29.

Abstract

Objective: There is strong evidence showing that pictorial health warnings are more effective than text-only warnings. However, much of this evidence comes from high-income countries and is limited to cigarette packaging. Moreover, few studies have identified mechanisms that might explain the impact of warnings.

Methods: The current study examined the potential mediating role of negative affect and the moderating influence of message credibility in perceived effectiveness of smokeless tobacco warnings in two low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Field interviews were conducted in India and Bangladesh, with adult (19 + years) smokeless tobacco users (n = 1053), and youth (16–18 years) users (n = 304) and non-users (n = 687). Respondents were randomly assigned to view warnings in one of four conditions: (1) Text-only, (2) pictorial with symbolic imagery, (3) pictorial with graphic images of health effects, or (4) pictorial with personalized graphic images plus a personal testimonial.

Results: The findings provide support for the mediating influence of negative affect in perceived effectiveness, for adult and youth smokeless tobacco users who viewed pictorial warnings (vs. text-only), and graphic health warnings (vs. personal testimonials). Among adults, message credibility moderated the indirect effect; the association was stronger when credibility was high and weaker when it was low. Among youth users and non-users, message credibility did not moderate the indirect effect.

Conclusions: Consistent with research from high-income countries, these findings highlight the importance of selecting imagery that will elicit negative emotional reactions and be perceived as credible. Differential effects among adults and youth highlight the importance of pre-testing images.

Abstract

Smokers are exposed to advice about quitting from numerous sources. Within the 2013 ITC 4-Country Survey, 1211 Australian smokers or recent ex-smokers rated the perceived importance of eight sources of advice, categorized into evidence-based, non evidence-based, personal experience and vicarious experience (two items each), and also rated their intention to quit, nicotine dependence, use of quit medication, health concerns and harm beliefs. The eight items were all positively correlated. Respondents who placed greater importance on their experiences (either personal or vicarious) were more likely to agree that the evidence for smoking-related harm is exaggerated, and although not more likely to intend to quit overall, these responses were most strongly related to quit intention. Notably, of those responding that all sources were 'not at all important' (or don't know), only 3.2% reported any interest in quitting in the next 6 months (compared to 36.0% among those who endorsed any), 12.8% were often concerned about smoking's effect on their health (compared with 60.4%), and 73.7% agreed that 'smoking is no more risky than other things' (compared with 34.5%). There was no evidence that rejecting evidence-based sources (medical or governmental) in favour of other sources was associated with lower quit intentions or behaviour.

Citation

Heckman, B.W., Cummings, K.M., Kasza, K.A., Borland, R., Burris, J.L., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Carpenter, M.J. (2017). Effectiveness of switching smoking cessation medications following relapse: A population-based study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 53(2), e63-e70.

Abstract

Introduction: Nicotine dependence is a chronic disorder often characterized by multiple failed quit attempts (QAs). Yet, little is known about the sequence of methods used across multiple QAs or how this may impact future ability to abstain from smoking. This prospective cohort study examines the effectiveness of switching smoking-cessation medications (SCMs) across multiple QAs.

Methods: Adult smokers (aged ≥18 years) participating in International Tobacco Control surveys in the United Kingdom, U.S., Canada, and Australia (N=795) who: (1) completed two consecutive surveys between 2006 and 2011; (2) initiated a QA at least 1 month before each survey; and (3) provided data for the primary predictor (SCM use during most recent QA), outcome (1-month point prevalence abstinence), and relevant covariates. Analyses were conducted in 2016.

Results: Five SCM user classifications were identified: (1) non-users (43.5%); (2) early users (SCM used for initial, but not subsequent QA; 11.4%); (3) later users (SCM used for subsequent, but not initial QA; 18.4%); (4) repeaters (same SCM used for both QAs; 10.7%); and (5) switchers (different SCM used for each QA; 14.2%). Abstinence rates were lower for non-users (15.9%, OR=0.48, p=0.002), early users (16.6%, OR=0.27, p=0.03), and repeaters (12.4%, OR=0.36, p=0.004) relative to switchers (28.5%).

Conclusions: Findings suggest smokers will be more successful if they use a SCM in QAs and vary the SCM they use across time. That smokers can increase their odds of quitting by switching SCMs is an important message that could be communicated to smokers.

Citation

Nicholson, A., Borland, R., Sarin, J., Bennet, P., Davey, M., Van der Sterren, A., Stevens, M., Thomas, D. (2017). Associations between advertising recall and quitting in a national cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 41(4), 444-45.

There is no abstract available for this publication.

Citation

Yong, H.H., Borland, R., Balmford, J., Hitchman, S.C., Cummings, K.M., Driezen, P., Thompson, M.E. (2017). Prevalence and correlates of the belief that electronic cigarettes are a lot less harmful than conventional cigarettes under the different regulatory environments of Australia and the United Kingdom. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 19(2), 258-263.

Abstract

Introduction: The rapid rise in electronic cigarettes (ECs) globally has stimulated much debate about the relative risk and public health impact of this new emerging product category as compared to conventional cigarettes. The sale and marketing of ECs containing nicotine are banned in many countries (eg, Australia) but are allowed in others (eg, United Kingdom). This study examined prevalence and correlates of the belief that ECs are a lot less harmful than conventional cigarettes under the different regulatory environments in Australia (ie, more restrictive) and the United Kingdom (ie, less restrictive).

Methods: Australian and UK data from the 2013 survey of the International Tobacco Control Four-Country project were analyzed.

Results: More UK than Australian respondents (58.5% vs. 35.2%) believed that ECs are a lot less harmful than conventional cigarettes but more respondents in Australia than in the United Kingdom selected “Don’t Know” (36.5% vs. 17.1%). The proportion that responded “A little less, equally or more harmful” did not differ between countries. Correlates of the belief that ECs are “A lot less harmful” differed between countries, while correlates of “Don’t Know” response did not differ.

Conclusions: Consistent with the less restrictive regulatory environment affecting the sale and marketing of ECs, smokers and recent ex-smokers in the United Kingdom were more likely to believe ECs were less harmful relative to conventional cigarettes compared to those in Australia.

Implications: What this study adds: Among smokers and ex-smokers, this study found that the belief that ECs are (a lot) less harmful than conventional cigarettes was considerably higher in the United Kingdom than in Australia in 2013. The finding is consistent with the less restrictive regulatory environment for ECs in the United Kingdom, suggesting that the regulatory framework for ECs adopted by a country can affect smokers’ perceptions about the relative harmfulness of ECs, the group that stands to gain the most from having an accurate belief about the relative harms of ECs.

Citation

Levy, D.T., Borland, R., Villanti, A.C., Niaura, R., Yuan, Z., Zhang, Y., Meza, R., Holford, T.R., Fong, G.T., Cummings, K.M., Abrams, D. B. (2017). The application of a decision-theoretic model to estimate the public health impact of vaporized nicotine product initiation in the United States. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 19(2), 149-159.

Abstract

Introduction: The public health impact of vaporized nicotine products (VNPs) such as e-cigarettes is unknown at this time. VNP uptake may encourage or deflect progression to cigarette smoking in those who would not have otherwise smoked, thereby undermining or accelerating reductions in smoking prevalence seen in recent years.

Methods: The public health impact of VNP use are modeled in terms of how it alters smoking patterns among those who would have otherwise smoked cigarettes and among those who would not have otherwise smoked cigarettes in the absence of VNPs. The model incorporates transitions from trial to established VNP use, transitions to exclusive VNP and dual use, and the effects of cessation at later ages. Public health impact on deaths and life years lost is estimated for a recent birth cohort incorporating evidence-informed parameter estimates.

Results: Based on current use patterns and conservative assumptions, we project a reduction of 21% in smoking-attributable deaths and of 20% in life years lost as a result of VNP use by the 1997 US birth cohort compared to a scenario without VNPs. In sensitivity analysis, health gains from VNP use are especially sensitive to VNP risks and VNP use rates among those likely to smoke cigarettes.

Conclusions: Under most plausible scenarios, VNP use generally has a positive public health impact. However, very high VNP use rates could result in net harms. More accurate projections of VNP impacts will require better longitudinal measures of transitions into and out of VNP, cigarette and dual use.

Implications: Previous models of VNP use do not incorporate whether youth and young adults initiating VNP would have been likely to have been a smoker in the absence of VNPs. This study provides a decision-theoretic model of VNP use in a young cohort that incorporates tendencies toward smoking and shows that, under most plausible scenarios, VNP use yields public health gains. The model makes explicit the type of surveillance information needed to better estimate the effect of new products and thereby inform public policy.

Citation

Thomas, D.P., Panaretto, K.S., Davey, M.E., Briggs, V., Borland, R. (2017). The social determinants, starting, and sustaining quit attempts in a national sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 41(3), 230-236.

Abstract

Objective: To assess whether social, economic and demographic measures are associated with initiating and sustaining quit attempts in a national sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers.

Methods: We analysed data from 759 adults who reported smoking at least weekly in the Talking About The Smokes baseline survey (April 2012 - October 2013) and completed a follow up survey a year later (August 2013 - August 2014).

Results: Almost none of the standard baseline socioeconomic indicators predicted making or sustaining quit attempts. However, becoming employed was associated with making quit attempts (OR 1.88) and both becoming employed (OR 3.03) and moving to purchase a home (OR 2.34) were both positively associated with sustaining abstinence of one month or more. More smokers who had insufficient money for food or essentials because of money spent on cigarettes had made a quit attempt (OR 1.47) and sustained abstinence of one month or more (OR 1.74).

Conclusions and Implications: Disadvantage does not seem to have pervasive negative effects on quitting. We should be more optimistic in our tobacco control activities with the most disadvantaged among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Increasing personal empowerment (e.g. getting a job) may lead to at least short-term improvements in quitting.

Citation

Hummel, K., Brown, J., Willemsen, M.C., West, R., Kotz, D. (2017). External validation of the Motivation to Stop Scale (MTSS) and comparison with the Stages of Change: Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. European Journal of Public Health, 27(1), 129-134.

Abstract

Background: The Motivation To Stop Scale (MTSS) is a single-item instrument which has been shown to predict quit attempts in the next 6 months in a previous validation study conducted in England. The aim of the current study was to determine the external validity of the MTSS among Dutch smokers in predicting quit attempts in the next 12 months. A secondary aim was to compare the discriminative accuracy of the MTSS with that of a Stages of Change assessment.

Methods: We analysed data from three consecutive waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey (n = 1272). We conducted logistic regression analyses with the baseline score of the MTSS (measured in 2012 or 2013) predicting a quit attempt in the next 12 months (measured in 2013 or 2014). We furthermore compared the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCAUC) curves of the MTSS and a Stages of Change measure.

Results: A total of 450 smokers (35.4%) made a quit attempt between baseline and 12-month follow-up. The regression analysis showed a positive relationship between scoring on the MTSS and quit attempts (odds ratio = 18.15, 95% confidence interval = 8.12–40.58 for the most vs. least motivated group). The discriminative accuracy of the MTSS (ROCAUC = 0.68) was marginally higher than that of a Stages of Change assessment (ROCAUC = 0.65), but not statistically significant (P = 0.21).

Conclusion: The MTSS is an externally valid instrument to predict quit attempts in the next 12 months.

Citation

Levy, D., Cummings, K.M., Villanti, A.C., Niaura, R., Abrams, D.B., Fong, G.T., Borland, R. (2017). A framework for evaluating the public health impact of e-cigarettes and other vaporized nicotine products. Addiction, 112(1), 8-17.

Abstract

The use of vaporized nicotine products (VNPs), especially e-cigarettes and, to a lesser extent, pressurized aerosol nicotine products and heat-not-burn tobacco products, are being adopted increasingly as an alternative to smoking combusted products, primarily cigarettes. Considerable controversy has accompanied their marketing and use. We propose a framework that describes and incorporates patterns of VNP and combustible cigarette use in determining the total amount of toxic exposure effects on population health. We begin by considering toxicity and the outcomes relevant to population health. We then present the framework and define different measures of VNP use; namely, trial and long-term use for exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive VNP and dual (cigarette and VNP) use. Using a systems thinking framework and decision theory we considered potential pathways for current, former and never users of VNPs. We then consider the evidence to date and the probable impacts of VNP use on public health, the potential effects of different policy approaches and the possible influence of the tobacco industry on VNP and cigarette use.

Citation

Nicholson, A.K., Borland, R., Bennet, P.T., Davey, M.E., Van der Sterren, A., Stevens, M., Thomas, D. (2017). The effect of pack warning labels on quitting and related thoughts and behaviours in a national cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 19(10), 1163-71.

Abstract

Introduction: The high prevalence of smoking among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia (39%) contributes substantially to health inequalities. This study assesses the impact of warning labels on quitting and related thoughts and behaviours for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers.

Methods: Participants were recruited from communities served by 34 Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services and communities in the Torres Strait, Australia, using quota sampling. A cohort of 642 daily/weekly smokers completed relevant questions at baseline (April 2012-October 2013) and follow up (August 2013-August 2014).

Results: We considered three baseline predictor variables: noticing warning labels, forgoing cigarettes due to warning labels ('forgoing') and perceiving labels to be effective. Forgoing increased significantly between surveys only for those first surveyed prior to the introduction of plain packs (19% vs. 34%), however there were no significant interactions between forgoing cigarettes and the introduction of new and enlarged graphic warning labels on plain packaging in any model. Forgoing cigarettes predicted attempting to quit (AOR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.02-2.06) and, among those who did not want to quit at baseline, wanting to quit at follow-up (AOR: 3.19, 95% CI: 1.06-9.63). Among those less worried about future health effects, all three variables predicted being very worried at follow-up. Often noticing warning labels predicted correct responses to questions about health effects that had featured on warning labels (AOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.20-2.82) but not for those not featured.

Conclusions: Graphic warning labels appear to have a positive impact on the understanding, concerns and motivations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers and, through these, their quit attempts.

Implications: Graphic warning labels are likely to be effective for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers as they are for the broader Australian population.

Citation

Gravely, S., Giovino, G.A., Craig, L.V., Commar, A., d'Espaignet, E.T., Schotte, K., Fong, G.T. (2017). Implementation of key demand-reduction measures of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and change in smoking prevalence in 126 countries: an association study. Lancet Public Health, 2(4), e166-174.

Abstract

Background: The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) has mobilised efforts among 180 parties to combat the global tobacco epidemic. This study examined the association between highest-level implementation of key tobacco control demand-reduction measures of the WHO FCTC and smoking prevalence over the treaty's first decade.

Methods: We used WHO data from 126 countries to examine the association between the number of highest-level implementations of key demand-reduction measures (WHO FCTC articles 6, 8, 11, 13, and 14) between 2007 and 2014 and smoking prevalence estimates between 2005 and 2015. McNemar tests were done to test differences in the proportion of countries that had implemented each of the measures at the highest level between 2007 and 2014. Four linear regression models were computed to examine the association between the predictor variable (the change between 2007 and 2014 in the number of key measures implemented at the highest level), and the outcome variable (the percentage point change in tobacco smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015).

Findings: Between 2007 and 2014, there was a significant global increase in highest-level implementation of all key demand-reduction measures. The mean smoking prevalence for all 126 countries was 24·73% (SD 10·32) in 2005 and 22·18% (SD 8·87) in 2015, an average decrease in prevalence of 2·55 percentage points (SD 5·08; relative reduction 10·31%). Unadjusted linear regression showed that increases in highest-level implementations of key measures between 2007 and 2014 were significantly associated with a decrease in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015). Each additional measure implemented at the highest level was associated with an average decrease in smoking prevalence of 1·57 percentage points (95% CI −2·51 to −0·63, p=0·001) and an average relative decrease of 7·09% (−12·55 to −1·63, p=0·011). Controlling for geographical subregion, income level, and WHO FCTC party status, the per-measure decrease in prevalence was 0·94 percentage points (−1·76 to −0·13, p=0·023) and an average relative decrease of 3·18% (−6·75 to 0·38, p=0·079). This association was consistent across all three control variables.

Interpretation: Implementation of key WHO FCTC demand-reduction measures is significantly associated with lower smoking prevalence, with anticipated future reductions in tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. These findings validate the call for strong implementation of the WHO FCTC in the WHO's Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Diseases 2013–2020, and in advancing the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 3, setting a global target of reducing tobacco use and premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by a third by 2030.

Citation

Fix, B.V., O’Connor, R., Benowitz, N.L., Heckman, B., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T., Thrasher, J.F. (2017). Nicotine Metabolite Ratio (NMR) prospectively predicts smoking relapse: longitudinal findings from ITC Surveys in five countries. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 19(9), 1040-1047.

Abstract

Introduction: The ratio of trans 3’-hydroxycotinine (3HC) to cotinine (nicotine metabolite ratio, NMR) is a biomarker of the rate of nicotine metabolism, with higher NMR indicating faster metabolism. Higher NMR has been found to be associated with higher daily cigarette consumption and less success stopping smoking in cessation trials. This study examines differences in NMR among population-based samples of smokers in the 5 countries and explores the relationship between NMR and smoking abstinence.

Methods: Participants (N=874) provided saliva samples during International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys in the US, UK, Mauritius, Mexico, and Thailand conducted in 2010/2011 with follow-up surveys in 2012/2013. When all samples were received, they were sent to a common laboratory for analysis using liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectroscopy.

Results: There was significant variation in NMR across countries (F=15.49, p<.001). Those who reported smoking at follow-up had a mean NMR of 0.32, compared to a mean NMR of 0.42 in participants who reported that they had stopped (F=8.93; p=0.003). Higher mean NMR values were also associated with longer quit duration (p=0.007). There was no substantial difference in NMR between current smokers who made a failed quit attempt and those who made no attempt – both had significantly lower NMR compared to those who quit and remained abstinent. Smokers with a higher NMR were more likely to report that they stopped smoking compared to those with a lower NMR (OR=2.67; 95%CI: 1.25-5.68).

Conclusions: These results suggest faster nicotine metabolizers may be less likely to relapse following a quit attempt. This finding differs from results of clinical trials testing stop smoking medications, where slower metabolizers have been found to be more likely to maintain abstinence from smoking.

Citation

Li, Z., Elton-Marshall, T., Fong, G.T., Quah, A.C.K., Feng, G., Jiang, Y., Hitchman, S.C. (2017). Noticing cigarette health warnings and support for new health warnings: findings from the ITC China. BioMed Central Public Health, 17(1), 476.

Abstract

Background: Health warnings labels (HWLs) have the potential to effectively communicate the health risks of smoking to smokers and non-smokers, and encourage smokers to quit. This study sought to examine whether non-smokers in China notice the current text-only HWLs and whether they support adding more health information and including pictures on HWLs.

Methods: Adult non-smokers (n = 1324) were drawn from Wave 4 (September 2011-November 2012) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey. The proportion of non-smokers who noticed the HWLs, and supported adding more health information and pictures to the HWLs was examined. Additionally, the relation between non-smokers' demographic characteristics, including whether they had a smoking partner, their number of smoking friends, and noticing the HWLs and support for adding health information and pictures was examined. Because the HWLs changed during the survey period (April 2012), differences between non-smokers who completed the survey before and after the change were examined.

Results: 12.2% reported they noticed the HWLs often in the last month. The multivariate model, adjusting for demographics showed that respondents with a smoking partner (OR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.42- 4.13, p = 0.001) noticed the HWLs more often. 64.8% of respondents agreed that the HWLs should have more information, and 80.2% supported including pictures. The multivariate model showed that nonsmokers who completed the survey after the HWLs were implemented (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.40-0.99, p = 0.04) were less likely to support adding more health information. The multivariate model showed a significant relation between having a smoking partner and supporting pictorial HWLs (OR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.24-3.33, p = 0.005).

Conclusions: The findings indicate that the Chinese HWLs are noticed by a minority of non-smokers and that non-smokers strongly support strengthening the Chinese warning labels with more health information and pictures. Additionally, because the HWLs are noticed more often by non-smokers with a smoking spouse/partner, HWLs could be used to communicate the dangers of smoking and secondhand smoke exposure to non-smokers.

Citation

Heckman, B.W., Cummings, K.M., Hirsch, A.A., Quisenberry, A.J., Borland, R., O’Connor, R.J., Fong, G.T., Bickel, W.K. (2017). A novel method for evaluating the acceptability of substitutes for cigarettes: The experimental tobacco marketplace. Tobacco Regulatory Science, 3(3), 266-279.

Abstract

Objectives: We tested the substitutability of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), electronic cigarettes (ECs), and very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) in the context of an online experimental tobacco marketplace (ETM) that was designed to mimic the choices of smokers under 4 policy scenarios.

Methods: Dutch cigarette smokers (N = 840) completed an online survey in July 2015. The ETM was comprised of conventional cigarettes, VLNCs, ECs (disposable/cartridge/tank systems), and NRT (lozenges/patches/tabs). All participants completed a scenario in which conventional cigarettes were banned. To test additional policy scenarios participants were randomized to one of 3 experiments: (1) no VLNCs; (2) all products available; or (3) no ECs. Hypothetical weekly purchases were made when the cost for conventional cigarettes was one-half market price (MP), MP, 2x MP, and 4x MP. We measured substitutability by the change in estimated consumption as cigarette prices increased.

Results: Tank and cartridge ECs and VLNCs were stronger cigarette substitutes than disposable ECs and NRT products. Substitution of ECs and NRT for cigarettes was dampened when VLNCs were available.

Conclusions: The ETM offers a method to predict how smokers might respond to policies that alter the availability of potentially substitutable products available in the marketplace.

Citation

Meijer, E., van Laar, C., Gebhardt, W.A., Fokkema, M., van den Putte, B., Dijkstra, A., Fong, G.T., Willemsen, M.C. (2017). Identity change among smokers and ex-smokers: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours, 31(4) 465-478.

Abstract

Successful smoking cessation appears to be facilitated by identity change, that is, when quitting or nonsmoking becomes part of smokers’ and ex-smokers’ self-concepts. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine how identity changes over time among smokers and ex-smokers and whether this can be predicted by socioeconomic status (SES) and psychosocial factors (i.e., attitude, perceived health damage, social norms, stigma, acceptance, self-evaluative emotions, health worries, expected social support). We examined identification with smoking (i.e., smoker self-identity) and quitting (i.e., quitter selfidentity) among a large sample of smokers (n = 742) and ex-smokers (n = 201) in a cohort study with yearly measurements between 2009 and 2014. Latent growth curve modeling was used as an advanced statistical technique. As hypothesized, smokers perceived themselves more as smokers and less as quitters than do ex-smokers, and identification with smoking increased over time among smokers and decreased among ex-smokers. Furthermore, psychosocial factors predicted baseline identity and identity development. Socioeconomic status (SES) was particularly important. Specifically, lower SES smokers and lower SES ex-smokers identified more strongly with smoking, and smoker and quitter identities were more resistant to change among lower SES groups. Moreover, stronger proquitting social norms were associated with increasing quitter identities over time among smokers and ex-smokers and with decreasing smoker identities among ex-smokers. Predictors of identity differed between smokers and exsmokers. Results suggest that SES and proquitting social norms should be taken into account when developing ways to facilitate identity change and, thereby, successful smoking cessation.

Citation

Mendes, F., Szklo, A., Perez, C., Cavalcante, T.M., Fong, G.T. (2017). Perceived enforcement of anti-smoking laws in bars and restaurants of three Brazilian cities: data from the ITC Brazil Survey. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 33(Sup 3), e00140315.

Abstract

Passive smoking causes severe and lethal effects on health. Since 1996 Brazil has been moving forward in the implementation of anti-smoking legislation in enclosed public spaces. This article aims to evaluate the perceived enforcement of anti-smoking legislation in the cities of Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul State), Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil, based on the results of the ITCBrazil Survey (International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project). The results of the survey showed a significant reduction in the proportion of people who saw individuals smoking in restaurants and bars between 2009 and 2013 in the three cities surveyed. Concurrently there was an increase in the proportion of smokers who mentioned having smoked in the outer areas of these facilities. These results likely reflect a successful implementation of anti-smoking laws. Of note is the fact that by decreasing passive smoking we further enhance smoking denormalization among the general population, decreasing smoking initiation and increasing its cessation.

Citation

Cavalcante, T.M., Szklo, A.S., Perez, C., Thrasher, J.F., Szklo, M., Oiumet, J., Gravely, S., Fong, G.T., de Almeida, L.M. (2017). Electronic cigarette awareness, use, and perception of harmfulness in Brazil: findings from a country that has strict regulatory requirements. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 33(3), e00074416.

Abstract

Given the uncertainties regarding electronic cigarettes’ (e-cigs) impact on health, in 2009 Brazil prohibited sales, importation or advertisements of these products until manufacturers are able to show they are safe and/or effective in smoking cessation. This study sought to analyze: (1) awareness of electronic cigarettes, ever-use and recent use; (2) perception of harmfulness of electronic cigarettes when compared with conventional cigarettes; and (3) correlates of awareness and perception of harmfulness. This is a cross-sectional study among Brazilian smokers (≥ 18 years) using the Wave 2 replenishment sample of the Brazilian International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey. Participants were recruited in three cities through a random-digit dialing sampling frame between October 2012 and February 2012. Among the 721 respondents, 37.4% (n = 249) of current smokers were aware of e-cigs, 9.3% (n = 48) reported having ever tried or used e-cigs and 4.6% (n = 24) reported having used them in the previous six months. Among those who were aware of e-cigs, 44.4% (n = 103) believed they were less harmful than regular cigarettes (low perception of harmfulness). “Low perception of harmfulness” was associated with a higher educational level and with having recently tried/used e-cigs. Despite restrictions to e-cigs in Brazil, 4.6% of sample smokers reported having recently used them. Health surveillance programs in Brazil and other countries should include questions on use and perceptions of e-cigs considering their respective regulatory environments.