Citation

Kyriakos, C.N., Chung-Hall, J., Craig, L.V., Fong, G.T. (in press). Optimizing a product standard for banning menthol and other flavors in tobacco products: Implications for the United States and other countries. in press, Tobacco Control.

Abstract

In this paper, we highlight key issues that policymakers should consider when developing a product standard banning menthol and other flavors in tobacco products based on research evidence and experiences learned from other countries. A flavor product standard may be optimized by (1) having a clear and comprehensive definition of flavor that includes a complete ban on additives that have flavor properties and/or evoke sensory/cooling effects (i.e., menthol analogues and synthetic coolants that stimulate the cooling receptor of the brain) rather than only as a “characterizing flavor”, and (2) applying the standard to all tobacco product categories as well as all components or parts of the tobacco product (i.e., the tobacco, filter, wrapper, or paper), including separate flavorings that can be added to the product.

Citation

Chung-Hall, J., Craig, L.V., Kyriakos, C.N., Fong, G.T. (2023). U.S. Food and Drug Administration must ban menthol cigarettes without delay: Lessons from other countries. American Journal of Preventive Medicine , [Published online Aug 7, doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2023.08.001]

Abstract

No abstract.

Citation

Naznin, E., George, J., Driezen, P., Palazzi, K., Faulkner, J., Wynne, O., Nargis, N., Fong, G.T., Bonevski, B. (2023). Trend over time on knowledge of the health effects of cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use in Bangladesh: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Bangladesh Surveys. Drug and Alcohol Review, [Published online 11 August, 2023, doi:10.1111/dar.13735].

Abstract

Introduction: Cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco (ST) use are prevalent in Bangladesh. This longitudinal study examined how knowledge of the health effects of smoking and ST use in Bangladesh has changed overtime with the country's acceleration of tobacco control efforts.

Methods: Data were analysed from the International Tobacco Control Survey, a nationally representative longitudinal study of users and non-users of tobacco (aged 15 and older) in Bangladesh, across four waves conducted in 2009 (n = 4378), 2010 (n = 4359), 2012 (n = 4223) and 2015 (n = 4242). Generalised estimating equations assessed the level of knowledge about harms of tobacco use across four waves. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed whether knowledge of health effects from cigarette smoking and ST use in 2015 differed by user group.

Results: In 2015 survey, most tobacco users were aware that cigarette smoking causes stroke (92%), lung cancer (97%), pulmonary tuberculosis (97%) and ST use causes mouth cancer (97%) and difficulty in opening mouth (80%). There were significant increases in the total knowledge score of smoking related health harm from 2010 to 2012 (mean difference = 0.640; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.537, 0.742) and 2012 to 2015 (mean difference = 0.555; 95% CI 0.465, 0.645). Participants had greater odds of awareness for ST health effects from 2010 to 2015.

Discussion and Conclusions: The results suggest that increasing efforts of awareness policy interventions is having a positive effect on tobacco-related knowledge in Bangladesh. These policy initiatives should be continued to identify optimal methods to facilitate behaviour change and improve cessation of smoking and ST use.

Citation

Simonavicius, E., East, K.A., Taylor, E., Nottage, M., Reid, J.R., Arnott, D., Bunce, , McNeill, A., Hammond, D. (2023). Impact of e-liquid packaging on vaping product perceptions among youth in England, Canada, and the United States: a randomised online experiment. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, [Published online, doi:10.1093/ntr/ntad144].

Abstract

Introduction: Vaping is not risk-free but can help those who smoke to reduce harm to health and stop smoking. However, packaging of vaping products, including e-liquids, appeals to youth and might facilitate vaping among nicotine-naïve people. Standardised packaging of vaping products could moderate the appeal of vaping among youth. This study assessed how youth interest in trying and perceived health harms of using eliquids are associated with branded or standardised (white or olive) e-liquid packaging with different nicotine levels displayed.

Methods: A between-subject experiment with 3 packaging and 2 nicotine level conditions included youth (n=13801) aged 16 to 19 from England, Canada and the United States as a part of a crosssectional online survey in August-September 2021. Participants' interest in trying and perceived harm of e-liquids were analysed using logistic and multinomial regressions adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, country, vaping and smoking status.

Results: Compared with branded e-liquid packs, more youth reported no interest in trying eliquids in white (aOR=1.48, 95% CI=1.34-1.64) or olive (aOR=1.62, 95% CI: 1.47-1.80) standardised packs. Compared with branded eliquid packs, more youth inaccurately perceived eliquids in white (aOR=1.22, 95% CI: 1.11-1.34) or olive (aOR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.18-1.41) standardised packs as equally or more harmful than smoking. E-liquid nicotine levels displayed on packs were not associated with youth interest in trying or harm perceptions of using eliquids.

Conclusion: Among 16- to 19-year-old youth from England, Canada and the US, standardised packaging of e-liquids was associated with lower interest in trying and higher health risk perceptions.

Implications: Branded packaging of vaping products appeals to youth and might prompt nicotine use among those who had never smoked. This study suggests that restricting branding elements on e-liquid packaging is associated with youth lower interest in trying e-liquids and higher misperceptions that vaping is equally or more harmful than smoking. Standardised packaging might reduce appeal of vaping among youth, but its potential to discourage vaping for harm reduction should also be considered.

Citation

Levy, D.T., Cadham, C., Yuan, Z., Li, Y., Gravely, S., Cummings, K.M. (2023). Comparison of smoking prevalence i n Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model. Canadian Journal of Public Health, 1-14. [Published online Aug 4, doi: 10.17269/s41997-023-00792-3].

Abstract

Objectives: The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

Methods: Canada SimSmoke uses age and sex specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. Th e model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012 2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends fro m two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.

Results: Comparing 2012-2020 survey data of post NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated a n NVP related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15 24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18 24. Much of the gain occurre d since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP related 2012 2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060. Conclusion: Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Conclusion: Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Citation

Tildy, B., McNeill, A., East, K.A., Gravely, S., Fong, G.T., Cummings, K.M., Borland, R., Chan, C.K.G., Lim, C., Gartner, C., Yong, H.H., Brose, L.S. (2023). Self-reported depression and anxiety and healthcare professional interactions regarding smoking cessations and nicotine vaping: Findings from 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation, 9(August), 26. doi: 10.18332/tpc/168288.

Abstract

Introduction: People with mental health conditions are disproportionately affected by smoking-related diseases and death. The aim of this study was to assess whether health professional (HP) interactions regarding smoking cessation and nicotine vaping products (NVPs) differ by mental health condition.

Methods: The cross-sectional 2018 International Tobacco Control Four Country (Australia, Canada, England, United States) Smoking and Vaping Survey data included 11040 adults currently smoking or recently quit. Adjusted weighted logistic regressions examined associations between mental health (self-reported current depression and/or anxiety) and visiting a HP in last 18 months; receiving advice to quit smoking; discussing NVPs with a HP; and receiving a recommendation to use NVPs.

Results: Overall, 16.1% self-reported depression and anxiety, 7.6% depression only, and 6.6% anxiety only. Compared with respondents with no depression/anxiety, those with depression (84.7%, AOR=2.65; 95% CI: 2.17–3.27), anxiety (82.2%, AOR=2.08; 95% CI: 1.70–2.57), and depression and anxiety (87.6%, AOR=3.74; 95% CI: 3.19–4.40) were more likely to have visited a HP. Among those who had visited a HP, 47.9% received advice to quit smoking, which was more likely among respondents with depression (AOR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.34–1.86), and NVP discussions were more likely among those with depression and anxiety (AOR=1.63; 95% CI: 1.29–2.06). Of the 6.1% who discussed NVPs, 33.5% received a recommendation to use them, with no difference by mental health.

Conclusions: People with anxiety and/or depression who smoke were more likely to visit a HP than those without, but only those with depression were more likely to receive cessation advice, and only those with depression and anxiety were more likely to discuss NVPs. There are missed opportunities for HPs to deliver cessation advice. NVP discussions and receiving a positive recommendation to use them were rare overall.

Citation

Lemos, M.K., Taylor, E., Wadsworth, E., Reid, J.L., Hammond, D., East, K.A. (2023). Perceptions of cannabis use risk to mental health among youth in Canada, England, and the United States from 2017 to 2021. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 250, 110904. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2023.110904.

Abstract

Background: There is little research examining perceptions of cannabis use risk to mental health in countries with differing cannabis regulations. This study therefore examines such perceptions among youth between 2017 and 2021 in Canada (non-medical cannabis legalized in October 2018), England (highly-restricted medical cannabis legalized November 2018), and the US (non-medical cannabis legal in some states).

Methods: Seven repeat cross-sectional online surveys were conducted between July 2017 to August 2021 among youth aged 16-19 in Canada (N=29,420), England (N=28,155), and the US (N=32,974). Logistic regression models, stratified by country, were used to examine perceptions of cannabis use risk to mental health over time, adjusting for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, cannabis use and, for the US only, state-level cannabis legalization.

Results: Perceptions that cannabis use posed “no risk” to mental health decreased between July 2017 and August 2021 in Canada (6.1% to 4.4%; AOR=0.64, 95% CI=0.52-0.78) and the US (14.0% to 11.3%; AOR=0.74, 0.65-0.84) but not England (3.7% to 4.5%; AOR=1.21, 0.97-1.52). No significant changes were observed from immediately before (August 2018) to after (August 2019) legalization of non-medical cannabis in Canada (AOR=0.99, 0.83-1.20) or highly-restricted medical cannabis in England (AOR=0.90, 0.70-1.17). In the US, perceptions of “no risk” were more likely in states where cannabis use was illegal (15.0%) compared with legal non-medical (12.2%) (AOR=0.68, 0.63-0.74).

Conclusion: There were modest decreases in perceptions that cannabis use poses no risk to mental health in Canada and the US between 2017 and 2021 but no clear association with cannabis legalization status.

Citation

Gravely, S., Meng, G., Hammond, D., Driezen, P., Thrasher, J.F., Fong, G.T., Craig, L.V., Chung-Hall, J., Quah, A.C.K., Ouimet, J., Bansal-Travers, M., Cummings, K.M. (2023). Support for pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packages in the United States among adults who currently smoke or quit smoking: Findings from the ITC US Smoking and Vaping Surveys. Tobacco Induced Diseases, 21(June), 84. doi: 10.18332/tid/166001.

Abstract

Introduction: In March 2020, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) finalized new pictorial health warnings (PHWs), covering 50% of the front and back of the pack; however, legal challenges from cigarette manufacturers have prevented the new warnings from being implemented. About 70% of adults in the general US population support PHWs. This study assessed support for PHWs in 2016, 2018 and 2020 among US adults (aged ≥18 years) who currently smoke or formerly smoked cigarettes. We also assessed factors related to support.

Methods: Respondents included adults who currently or formerly smoked cigarettes and participated in at least one wave of the US ITC Smoking and Vaping Surveys: Wave 1 (2016, n=2557); Wave 2 (2018, n=2685); and Wave 3 (2020, n=1112). We assessed changes in support for PHWs between 2016 and 2020, and assessed factors related to support (support vs oppose/don’t know). Analyses were conducted on weighted data.

Results: Overall, 38.0% of respondents supported PHWs in 2016, with a significant increase to 44.7% in 2018 (p<0.001), and leveling off to 45.0% in 2020 (2018 vs 2020, p=0.91). Support was highest among former smokers and lowest among daily smokers in all three survey years. Support for PHWs at all survey years was significantly higher among those who formerly smoked, were younger (aged 18–39 vs ≥40 years), those who identified as Black (vs White), and planned to quit smoking (vs not planning to quit). There were no differences by income level, education level, or sex.

Conclusions: Nearly half of US adults who smoke cigarettes or quit smoking supported PHWs in 2020, with support being higher among younger adults, ethnic minorities, and those who formerly smoked. Support increased between 2016 and 2018, but not between 2018 and 2020. Similar to other studies, fewer current and former smokers supported PHWs compared to the US adult general population.

Citation

Mechili, E.A., Przewoźniak, K., Driezen, P., Kyriakos, C.N., Girvalaki, C., Mons, U., Quah, A.C.K., Fernández, E., Trofor, A.C., Demjén, T., Katsaounou, P.A., Zatoński, W.A., Fong, G.T., Vardavas, C.I. (2023). Smokers' support for the ban on sale of slim cigarettes in six European countries: Findings from the EUREST PLUS ITC Europe Surveys. Open Research Europe, 1(52). [Published online Jun 19, doi: 10.12688/openreseurope.13405.4].

Abstract

Background: Efforts to regulate tobacco products and reduce consumption in the European Union (EU) include the European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which went into force in May 2016. Despite the initial discussion to include a ban on sale of slim cigarettes, it was excluded in the final TPD. The main goal of this study was to examine support for a ban on slim cigarettes among smokers in six European Countries.

Methods: Data from the 2018 (Wave 2) International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project 6 European Country (ITC 6E) EUREST PLUS project survey, a cross sectional study of adult smokers (n=5592) fro m Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Spain, was analysed. Descriptive statistics were used to estimate support for a ban on slim cigarettes by sociodemographic characteristics and smoking behaviors. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine factors associated with support for a ban on slim cigarettes and perceptions of harm.

Results: Support for a ban on slims varied across countries, with highest support in Romania (33.8%), and lowest in Greece (18.0%). Female smokers (OR=0.78; 95%CI=0. 67 0.91, daily smokers (OR=0.68; 95%CI=0.47 0.97), menthol smokers (OR=0.55; 95%CI=0.36 0.86), and smokers who did not have plans to quit within next six months (OR=0.45; 95%CI=0.36 0.56) had significantly lower odds of supporting a ban on slim cigarettes. Overall, 21% of smokers perceived slim cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes.

Conclusions: Support for a ban of slim cigarettes was relatively low among smokers, while misperceptions that slim cigarettes are less harmful is high, particularly among countries where slim cigarette use is more revalent. Findings support a ban on slim cigarettes to reduce misperceptions around slim cigarettes being less harmful.

Citation

Gravely, S., Driezen, P., McClure, E., Smith, D.M., Fong, G.T. (2023). Prevalence of depressive symptoms and cannabis use among adult cigarette smokers in Canada: cross-sectional findings from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Canada Smoking and Vaping Survey. Canadian Medical Association Journal Open, 11(3), E516-E526. doi: 10.9778/cmajo.20220081.

Abstract

Background: Tobacco smoking and cannabis use are independently associated with depression, and evidence suggests that people who use both tobacco and cannabis (co-consumers) are more likely to report mental health problems, greater nicotine dependence and alcohol misuse than those who use either product exclusively. We examined prevalence of cannabis use and depressive symptoms among Canadian adults who smoke cigarettes and tested whether co-consumers of cannabis and tobacco were more likely to report depressive symptoms than cigarette-only smokers; we also tested whether cigarette-only smokers and co-consumers differed on cigarette dependence measures, motivation to quit smoking and risky alcohol use by the presence or absence of depressive symptoms.

Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data from adult (age ≥ 18 yr) current (≥ monthly) cigarette smokers from the Canadian arm of the 2020 International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Canadian respondents were recruited from Leger’s online probability panel across all 10 provinces. We estimated weighted percentages for depressive symptoms and cannabis use among all respondents and tested whether co-consumers (≥ monthly use of cannabis and cigarettes) were more likely to report depressive symptoms than cigarette-only smokers. Weighted multivariable regression models were used to identify differences between co-consumers and cigarette-only smokers with and without depressive symptoms.

Results: A total of 2843 current smokers were included in the study. The prevalence of past-year, past-30-day and daily cannabis use was 44.0%, 33.2% and 16.1%, respectively (30.4% reported using cannabis at least monthly). Among all respondents, 30.0% screened positive for depressive symptoms, with co-consumers being more likely to report depressive symptoms (36.5%) than those who did not report current cannabis use (27.4%, p < 0.001). Depressive symptoms were associated with planning to quit smoking (p = 0.01), having made multiple attempts to quit smoking (p < 0.001), the perception of being very addicted to cigarettes (p < 0.001) and strong urges to smoke (p = 0.001), whereas cannabis use was not (all p ≥ 0.05). Cannabis use was associated with high-risk alcohol consumption (p < 0.001), whereas depressive symptoms were not (p = 0.1).

Interpretation: Co-consumers were more likely to report depressive symptoms and high-risk alcohol consumption; however, only depression, and not cannabis use, was associated with greater motivation to quit smoking and greater perceived dependence on cigarettes. A deeper understanding of how cannabis, alcohol use and depression interact among people who smoke cigarettes is needed, as well as how these factors affect cessation activity over time.

Citation

Gravely, S., Yong, H.H., Reid, J.L., East, K.A., Liber, A.C., Cummings, K.M., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G.T., Hammond, D. (2023). An examination of quitting smoking as a reason for vaping by the type of nicotine vaping device used most often among adults who smoke and vape: Findings from the Canada, England and the United States 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey. Preventive Medicine Reports, 33, 102201. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102201.

Abstract

Several nicotine vaping product (NVP) device types are available to consumers, and many people who smoke report vaping to help them quit. This study included data from the Wave 3 (2020) ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in the US, Canada, and England and included 2324 adults who were smoking cigarettes and vaping at least weekly. Device types currently used most often (disposables, cartridges/pods, or tank systems) were assessed using weighted descriptive statistics. Multivariable regression analyses were used to compare differences between respondents who reported vaping to quit smoking (‘yes’ vs. ‘no/don’t know’) by device type, overall and by country. Overall, 71.3% of respondents reported vaping to help them quit smoking, with no country differences (p = 0.12). Those using tanks (78.7%, p < 0.001) and cartridges/pods (69.5%, p = 0.02) were more likely to report this reason for vaping than those using disposables (59.3%); respondents using tanks were also more likely than those using cartridges/pods (p = 0.001) to report this reason. By country, respondents in England using cartridges/pods or tanks (vs. disposables) were more likely to report vaping to quit smoking (with no difference between cartridges/pods and tanks). In Canada, respondents using tanks were more likely to report vaping to quit smoking than those using cartridges/pods or disposables (no difference between disposables and cartridges/pods). No significant differences by device type were found in the US. In conclusion, most adult respondents who smoked and vaped reported using either cartridges/pods or tanks, which were associated with greater odds of vaping for the purpose of quitting smoking versus disposables, with some country variations.

Citation

Yong, H.H., Karmakar, C., Motin, M. A., Borland, R., Cummings, K.M., Gravely, S., Fong, G.T. (2023). Individual and conjoint factors associated with beliefs about the harmfulness of nicotine replacement therapies relative to combustible cigarettes among people who smoke: Findings from the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 25(9), 1594-1602. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntad075.

Abstract

Introduction: This study examined individual and conjoint factors associated with beliefs about the harmfulness of nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) relative to combustible cigarettes (CCs).

Methods: Data analyzed came from 8,642 adults (18+ years) who smoked daily/weekly and participated in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Australia (n=1213), Canada (n=2633), England (n=3057), and United States (US, n=1739). Respondents were asked: Compared to smoking cigarettes, how harmful do you think nicotine replacement products are? Responses were dichotomised into much less vs. otherwise for analysis using multivariable logistic regression models, complemented by decision-tree analysis to identify conjoint factors.

Results: Percentages believing that NRTs are much less harmful than CCs were 29.7% (95% CI:26.2-33.5%) in Australia, 27.4% (95% CI=25.1-29.8%) in England, 26.4% (95% CI=24.4-28.4%) in Canada and 21.7% (95% CI=19.2-24.3%) in the US. Across all countries, believing nicotine is not at all/slightly harmful to health (aOR=1.53-2.27), endorsing nicotine vaping products as less harmful than CCs (much less harmful: aOR=7.24-14.27; somewhat less harmful: aOR=1.97-3.23), and possessing higher knowledge of smoking harms (aOR=1.23-1.88) were individual factors associated with increased odds of believing NRTs are much less harmful than CCs. With some country variations, these nicotine-related measures also interacted with each other and socio-demographic variables to serve as conjoint factors associated with the likelihood of accurate NRT relative harm belief.

Conclusions: Many people who regularly smoke cigarettes are unaware that NRTs are much less harmful than cigarettes. Additionally, beliefs about NRTs relative harmfulness appear to be influenced by both individual and conjoint factors.

Implications: This study demonstrates that despite past efforts to educate people who smoke about the harms of NRTs relative to CCs, misperceptions around the relative harmfulness of NRTs remain substantial. In all four studied countries, subgroups of people who smoke regularly who are misinformed about the relative harmfulness of NRTs, and who may be reluctant to use NRTs for smoking cessation can be reliably identified for corrective interventions based o n their understanding of the harms related to nicotine, NVPs and smoking along with sociodemographic markers. The identified subgroup information can be used to prioritize and inform the development of effective interventions to specifically address the gaps in knowledge and understanding of the various subgroups identified. Our results suggest these may need to be tailored for each country.

Citation

Taylor, E., East, K.A., Reid, J., Hammond, D. (2023). Awareness and use of short-fill e-liquids by youth in England in 2021: Findings from the ITC Youth Survey. Tobacco Control, [Published online May 2, doi:10.1136/tc-2022-057871].

Abstract

Background: Refillable e-cigarettes were popular among youth in England in 2021. The UK Tobacco and Related Products Regulations (TRPR) limits e-liquids to 20 mg/mL of nicotine in a 10 mL bottle. Short-fill e-liquids, which are not covered by TRPR regulations, are typically nicotine-free and come in larger, underfilled bottles allowing customisation with the addition of ‘nicotine shots’. This paper investigates awareness, use, and reasons for use of short-fill e-liquids among youth in England.

Methods: Data are from the online 2021 International Tobacco Control Youth Survey, comprising 4224 youth (aged 16–19 years) in England. Weighted logistic regression models investigated associations between awareness and past 30-day use of short-fills by smoking status, vaping status, nicotine strength vaped and participant demographics. Reasons for use were also reported.

Results: Approximately one-quarter (23.0%) of youth in England reported awareness of short-fill e-liquids. Among youth who had vaped in the past 30 days, 22.1% had used short-fills in the past 30 days; use was most prevalent among those who were also smoking (43.2%) and those who reported usually vaping nicotine concentrations of 2.1% (21 mg/mL) or more (40.8%). ‘Convenience of a bigger bottle’ was the most selected reason for use (45.0%), followed by ‘less expensive than regular e-liquids’ (37.6%).

Conclusions: Awareness of short-fills was common among youth in 2021, including among those who had never vaped or smoked. Among youth who vaped in the past 30 days, short-fill use was more prevalent among those who also smoked and those who vaped nicotine-containing e-liquids. Integration of short-fill products into existing e-cigarette regulations should be considered.

Citation

Reid, J., Burkhalter, R., Kasza, K.A., Seo, Y., East, K.A., Hyland, A., Hammond, D. (2023). Minimum legal age laws and perceived access to cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and other substances among youth in Canada, England, and the United States: 2017-2021. International Journal of Drug Policy, 115, 104003. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104003.

Abstract

Background: Minimum legal age (MLA) restrictions are a core policy to reduce youth use of tobacco, e-cigarettes, and other substances. We examined trends in perceived ease of access to tobacco and other substances across three countries with differing MLA policies, including the United States (US), which increased the federal MLA for tobacco products from 18 to 21 in 2019.

Methods: Repeat cross-sectional data were analyzed from seven waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Youth Tobacco and Vaping Survey conducted between 2017 and 2021. Online surveys were conducted with non-probability samples of 91,647 youth aged 16-19 in Canada, England, and the US. Regression models were used to examine differences in perceived ease of accessing each of 7 substances (analyzed as "very easy" or "fairly easy" versus else), and differences between countries and over time (including before and after any MLA changes) for cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cannabis, and alcohol; additional models examined sub-national variation in MLA.

Results: Perceived access varied by substance and across countries: in August/September 2021, perceived ease of accessing cigarettes and e-cigarettes was greater in Canada where MLA was 18-19 (61.7% cigarettes, 66.4% e-cigarettes) and England where MLA was 18 (66.9%, 69.6%), compared to the US where MLA was 21 (48.0%, 60.9%; p < 0.001 for all). Perceived ease of accessing cannabis was greatest in Canada (53.3%), followed by the US (44.1%) and England (34.0%; p < 0.001 for all). Following the federal MLA increase for tobacco products in the US, perceived ease of access decreased significantly for cigarettes (65.1% in 2019Aug to 59.7% in 2020Feb; aOR=0.80 (95%CI=0.71-0.89)) and e-cigarettes (72.4% in 2019Aug to 69.4% in 2020Feb; aOR=0.87 (95%CI=0.77-0.98)).

Conclusions: Higher MLA was strongly associated with fewer youth perceiving easy access to substances: perceived access varied between countries with differing MLA, as well as within-country before and after changes to MLA.

Citation

Fu, M., Castellano, Y., Tigova, O., Driezen, P., Thompson, M.E., Kaai, S.C., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G.T., Vardavas, C.I., Fern á ndez, E. (2023). ITC EUREST PLUS España: protocolo de un estudio longitudinal de fumadores en España [ITC EUREST PLUS Spain: Protocol of a longitudinal study of smokers in Spain]. Gaceta Sanitaria, 37, 102307. doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.

Abstract

Objective: The ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain Survey is a longitudinal study of a representative sample of Spanish adult (≥18 years old) smokers. This protocol describes the methods of the 2021 follow-up survey.

Method:The ITC EUREST-PLUS Survey, a prospective cohort study of a representative sample of smokers in six European countries, was conducted in 2016 (baseline) and 2018 (waves 1 and 2). The 2021 ITC EUREST-PLUS Spain Survey is a continuation of the Spanish cohort with a new interview in 2021 (wave 3). Lost participants were replaced with new smokers recruited using the same multi-stage sampling design. This latest follow-up aims to examine current patterns and transitions of tobacco use and to evaluate the impact of new tobacco-related policies.

Citation

Yimsaard, P., Gravely, S., Meng, G., Fong, G.T., Cummings, K.M., Hyland, A., Borland, R., Hammond, D., Kasza, K.A., Li, L., Quah, A.C.K. (2023). Differences in smoking cessation behaviours and vaping status among adult daily smokers with or without depression, anxiety, hazardous alcohol use: Findings from the 2018 and 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction, [Published online, doi:10.1007/s11469-023-01058].

Abstract

This study examined differences in quit attempts, 1-month quit success, and vaping status at follow-up among a cohort of 3709 daily smokers with and without depression, anxiety, and regular alcohol use who participated in both the 2018 and 2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping (ITC 4CV) Surveys. At baseline, a survey with validated screening tools was used to classify respondents as having no, or one or more of the following: 1) depression, 2) anxiety, and 3) regular alcohol use. Multivariable adjusted regression analyses were used to examine whether baseline (2018) self-report conditions were associated with quit attempts; quit success; and vaping status by follow-up (2020). Results showed that respondents who reported depressive symptoms were more likely than those without to have made a quit attempt (aOR = 1.32, 95% CI:1.03–1.70, p = 0.03), but were less likely to have quit (aOR = 0.55, 95% CI:0.34–0.89, p = 0.01). There were no differences in quit attempts or quit success between those with and without self-reported anxiety diagnoses or regular alcohol use. Among successful quitters, respondents with baseline depressive symptoms and self-reported anxiety diagnoses were more likely than those without to report vaping at follow-up (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI:1.16–5.74, p = 0.02, and aOR = 3.35 95% CI:1.14–9.87, p = 0.03). In summary, it appears that smokers with depression are motivated to quit smoking but were less likely to manage to stay quit, and more likely to be vaping if successfully quit. As smoking rates are higher among people with mental health conditions, it is crucial for healthcare professionals to identify these vulnerable groups and offer tailored smoking cessation support and continued support during their quit attempt.

Citation

Geboers, C., Candel, M.J.J.M., Nagelhout, G.E., de Vries, H., van den Putte, B., Fong, G.T., Willemsen, M.C. (2023). Smokers’ strategies to reduce tobacco spending: self-reported use and differences across subgroups. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 738. doi:10.1186/s12889-023-15678-9.

Abstract

Background: The cost of tobacco is one of the most reported reasons for smoking cessation. Rather than quitting, smokers can use also strategies to reduce tobacco expenditure while continuing smoking, such as smoking less or using price-minimising strategies. The Netherlands announced to increase the price of a pack cigarettes from seven (2018) to ten euros (2023), to reduce tobacco prevalence and consumption. This study explores the self-reported strategies to reduce tobacco spending among Dutch smokers, and whether this differed per age, income, and education. Additionally, we analysed among quitters in these subgroups whether price played a role in their decision to quit.

Methods: Cross-sectional survey data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Wave 2 (September-November 2020, N = 1915) was used. Strategies to reduce spending among smokers (N = 1790) were: reducing consumption, bulk buying, switching to cheaper products or buying from low-taxed sources. These were collapsed into: reducing consumption (solely or in combination with other behaviours), solely price-minimising behaviours (such as buying cheaper brands), or no strategies to reduce spending. Associations between strategies and characteristics were analysed through multinomial and binary logistic regression models. Second, we explored which subgroups were more likely to report that price played a role in their decision to quit among quitters (N = 125).

Results: The majority of smokers used strategies to reduce tobacco spending: 35.6% reduced consumption and 19.3% used solely price-minimising strategies. 82.1% of quitters reported that price played a role in their decision to quit. Low-income individuals were more likely to report price as a reason for quitting and reduce consumption, but also to buy cheaper products. Highly nicotine dependent smokers were more likely to use price-minimising behaviours, and less likely to reduce consumption.

Conclusions: The majority reported using strategies to reduce spending or that price played a role in their decision to quit. Reducing consumption was the most reported strategy. Low-income smokers were more likely to reportedly reduce consumption, buy cheaper products, or quit. Price policies have the potential to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in smoking. To discourage price-minimising behaviours, such as switching to cheaper products, reducing price differences between products should be prioritized.

Citation

Kyriakos, C.N., Driezen, P., Fong, G.T., Chung-Hall, J., Hyland, A., Geboers, C., Craig, L.V., Willemsen, M., Filippidis, F.T. (2023). Illicit purchasing and use of flavour accessories after the European Union menthol cigarette ban: Findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys. European Journal of Public Health, 33(4), 619 626. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad049.

Abstract

Background: The 2020 European Union (EU) menthol cigarette ban increased quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers in the Netherlands, but some reported continuing to smoke menthol cigarettes. This study examined three possible explanations for post-ban menthol use—(i) illicit purchasing, (ii) use of flavour accessories and (iii) use of non-menthol replacement brands marketed for menthol smokers.

Methods: Data were from the ITC Netherlands Cohort Surveys among adult smokers before the menthol ban (Wave 1: February–March 2020, N = 2067) and after the ban (Wave 2: September–November 2020, N = 1752; Wave 3: June–July 2021, N = 1721). Bivariate, logistic regression and generalized estimating equation model analyses were conducted on weighted data.

Results: Illicit purchasing remained low from pre-ban (2.4%, 95% CI: 1.8–3.2, Wave 1) to post-ban (1.7%, 1.2–2.5%, Wave 3), with no difference between menthol and non-menthol smokers from Wave 1 to Wave 3. About 4.4% of post-ban menthol smokers last purchased their usual brand outside of the EU and 3.6% from the internet; 42.5% of post-ban menthol smokers and 4.4% of smokers overall reported using flavour accessories, with greater odds among those aged 25–39 years vs. 55+ (aOR = 3.16, P = 0.002). Approximately 70% of post-ban smokers who reported using a menthol brand were actually using a non-menthol replacement brand.

Conclusions: There was no increase in illicit purchasing or of smuggling outside the EU among menthol and non-menthol smokers in the Netherlands 1 year after the EU menthol cigarette ban. Use of flavour accessories and non-menthol replacement brands best explain post-ban menthol use, suggesting the need to ban accessories and ensure industry compliance.

Citation

Chen, D.T.H., Nargis, N., Fong, G.T., Huq, S., Quah, A.C.K., Millet, C., Filippidis, F.T. (2023). A longitudinal study of transitions between smoking and smokeless tobacco use from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys: Implications for tobacco control in the Southeast Asia region. The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia, 14, 100185. doi: 10.1016/j.lansea.2023.100185.

Abstract

Background: In Southeast Asia, tobacco use is a major public health threat. Tobacco users in this region may switch between or concurrently use smoked tobacco and smokeless tobacco (SLT), which makes effective tobacco control challenging. This study tracks transitions of use among different product users (cigarettes, bidis, and SLT) in Bangladesh, one of the largest consumers of tobacco in the region, and examines factors related to transitions and cessation.

Methods: Four waves (2009–2015) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Survey with a cohort sample of 3245 tobacco users were analysed. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models were used to explore the socioeconomic correlates of transitions from the exclusive use of cigarettes, bidis, or SLT to the use of other tobacco products or quitting over time.

Findings: Among exclusive cigarette users, most remained as exclusive cigarette users (68.1%). However, rural smokers were more likely than urban smokers to transition to bidi use (odds ratio [OR] = 3.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.45–6.29); to SLT use (OR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.79–4.02) and to quit tobacco (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.06–2.33). Among exclusive bidi users, transitional patterns were more volatile. Fewer than half (43.3%) of the exclusive bidi users maintained their status throughout the waves. Those with higher socio-economic status (SES) were more likely to quit (OR = 4.16, 95% CI = 1.08–13.12) compared to low SES smokers. Exclusive SLT users either continued using SLT or quit with minimal transitions to other products (≤2%). Nevertheless, males were more likely to switch to other tobacco products; younger (OR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.23–6.90 vs. older), more educated (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.77–3.12 vs. less educated), and urban SLT users (OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30–0.86 for rural vs. urban users) were more likely to quit.

Interpretation: Complex transitional patterns were found among different types of tobacco product users over time in Bangladesh. These findings can inform more comprehensive and multi-faceted approaches to tackle diversified tobacco use in Bangladesh and neighbouring countries in the Southeast Asia region with similar tobacco user profiles of smoked tobacco and SLT products.

Citation

Lyu, J., Sung, H.Y., Yao, T., Jiang, N., Quah, A.C.K., Meng, G., Jiang, Y., Fong, G.T., Max, W. (2023). Cigarette gifting among non-smokers in China: Findings from the International Tobacco Control China Survey. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 25(5), 928-936. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntac294.

Abstract

Introduction: Cigarette gifting is commonly practiced in China and has contributed to the social acceptability and high prevalence of cigarette smoking in the country. As a result, nonsmokers in China are particularly susceptible to smoking. While previous studies have examined cigarette gifting behaviors among smokers, little is known about cigarette gifting among nonsmokers.

Aims and Methods: This study aimed to examine the percentage and correlates of giving and receiving cigarettes as gifts among adult nonsmokers in China. We analyzed nonsmokers (N = 1813) aged ≥18 years using data from the International Tobacco Control China Wave 5 Survey. Descriptive statistics summarized the characteristics of those who gave and received cigarettes as gifts. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with the two behaviors.

Results: Among nonsmokers, 9.9% reported giving cigarettes as gifts to family or friends in the last 6 months. A higher level of knowledge about smoking harms was associated with lower adjusted odds of gifting cigarettes. Nonsmokers aged 25–39 years, with middle income, positive attitude toward cigarette gifts, exposure to anti-smoking information, and exposure to smoking promotion, and those who reported receiving cigarettes as gifts from family or friends were more likely to give cigarettes as gifts. A total of 6.6% of nonsmokers reported receiving cigarettes as gifts in the last 6 months. High education, neutral or positive attitude toward cigarette gifts, exposure to anti-smoking information, exposure to smoking promotion, and having smoking friends were associated with receiving cigarettes as gifts.

Conclusions: It is concerning that Chinese cultural norms that support cigarette gifting have extended to giving nonsmokers cigarettes as gifts. Effective anti-smoking messages are needed. Changing the norms around cigarette gifting and increasing knowledge about smoking harms should help reduce cigarette gifting among nonsmokers.

Implications: Easy access to cigarettes received as gifts, along with the wide acceptance of smoking in China, places Chinese nonsmokers in a risky position. More educational campaigns targeting nonsmokers to proactively prevent them from smoking are called for. The ineffectiveness of existing anti-smoking information highlights the need for more effective anti-smoking messages. That attitude toward cigarette gifts is the strongest predictor of giving cigarettes as gifts suggests the need for interventions to reverse the positive attitude about cigarette gifting to decrease the popularity of this activity.

Citation

Nagelhout, G.E., Poole, N., Geboers, C., Magnée, T., Kaag, A.M., van den Brand, F.A., van den Putte, B., de Vries, H., Fong, G.T., Willemsen, M.C. (2023). Smoking cessation among gender minority populations, cis-women, and cis-men: Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 25(5), 945-953. doi:10.1093/ntr/ntac283.

Abstract

Background: Little is known about smoking cessation among gender minority populations compared to cis-gender individuals (whose gender matches their sex assigned at birth). We examined differences between smokers from gender minority populations, cis-women, and cis-men in heaviness of smoking, quit intentions, use of cessation assistance, quit attempts (ever tried and number), and triggers for thinking about quitting.

Aims and Methods: We used cross-sectional data from the 2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. Among smoking respondents, we distinguished (1) cis-women (female sex, identified as women, and having feminine gender roles; n=670), (2) cis-men (male sex, identified as men, and having masculine gender roles; n=897), and (3) gender minorities (individuals who were intersex, who identified as nonbinary, genderqueer, had a sex/gender identity not listed, whose gender roles were not feminine or masculine, or whose gender identity and/or roles were not congruent with sex assigned at birth; n=220).

Results: Although gender minorities did not differ from cis-women and cis-men in heaviness of smoking, plans to quit smoking, and quit attempts, they were significantly more likely to use cessation assistance (20% in the past six months) than cis-women (12%) and cis-men (9%). Gender minorities were also significantly more likely to report several triggers for thinking about quitting smoking, e.g. quit advice from a doctor, an anti-smoking message/campaign, and the availability of a telephone helpline.

Conclusion: Despite equal levels of quit attempts and heaviness of smoking, gender minority smokers make more use of smoking assistance, and respond stronger to triggers for thinking about quitting smoking.

Implications: Smoking cessation counselors should be sensitive to the stressors that individuals from any minority population face, such as stigmatization, discrimination, and loneliness, and should educate their smoking clients on effective coping mechanisms to prevent relapse into smoking after they experience these stressors. Developing tailored smoking cessation programs or campaigns specifically for gender minority populations can also be useful. Based on the results of our subgroup analyses, programs or campaigns for younger gender minority smokers could focus on the availability of telephone helplines and on how friends and family think about their smoking behavior.

Citation

Usidame, O., Meng, G., Thrasher, J.F., Thompson, M.E., Fong, G.T., Fleischer, N.L. (2023). Examining the effectiveness of the 2012 Canadian graphic warning label policy change by sex, income, and education. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 25(4), 763-772. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntac235.

Abstract

Background: We examined the differential impact of the 2012 Canadian GWL policy changes on key indicators of warning label impact and quit intentions using national cohorts of Canadian and US adults who smoke.

Methods: We used data from all waves of the International Tobacco Control surveys (2002-2020) in Canada and the US. Our key measures were quit intentions and an index of warning label effectiveness (salience, cognitive and behavioral reactions). We estimated overall policy impact by comparing Canada (treatment group) with the US (control group) using controlled interrupted time series (CITS) regression models, with interactions to examine whether policy impact varied by sex, education, and income.

Results: The CITS model showed a statistically significant increase in the warning label effectiveness in Canada post-policy, compared to the US (β= 0.84, 95% CI 0.35,1.33). Similarly, the odds of quit intentions were relatively higher among adults who smoked in Canada compared to the US (OR= 1.89, 95% CI 1.51,2.36) post-policy. The three-way interaction model showed that these associations were greater among adults from low socioeconomic status (SES) groups than in high SES groups.

Discussion: The 2012 change in the Canadian GWL policy was associated with stronger cognitive and behavioral responses to GWLs and higher odds of quit intentions among adults who smoked in Canada when compared to the US, specifically among individuals from low SES groups, suggesting a positive equity impact. Our findings affirm the need for countries to implement or enhance GWLs, in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Implications: The evidence on the potential health equity benefit of GWL policies is mixed. To further understand the influence of GWL policies on tobacco use disparities, more systematic research using pre/post policy designs with control groups is needed. Using a controlled interrupted time series model, we aimed to strengthen the available evidence on the causal influence of this tobacco control approach. Our findings show that the 2012 GWL policy change had a greater impact on adults who smoked from low SES groups than it did on adults who smoked from high SES groups, indicating a potentially positive equity impact and confirming the need for countries to implement or maximize the size of GWLs, as recommended by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Citation

Geboers, C., Candel, M.J.J.M., Chaloupka, F.J., Nagelhout, G.E., de Vries, H., van den Putte, B., Shang, C., Fong, G.T., Willemsen, M.C. (2023). Trends in individualized affordability of factory-made cigarettes: findings of the 2008-2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Surveys. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 25(4), 746-754. doi:10.1093/ntr/ntac259.

Abstract

Introduction: Cigarette affordability, the price of tobacco relative to consumer income, is a key determinant of tobacco consumption. This study examined trends over 12 years in individualized factorymade cigarette affordability in the Netherlands, and whether these trends differed by sex, age, and education.

Methods: Data from 10 waves (2008-2020) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Surveys were used to estimate individualized affordability, measured as the percentage of income required to buy 100 cigarette packs (Relative Income Price, RIP), using self-reported prices and income. The higher the RIP, the less affordable cigarettes are. Generalized estimating equation regression models assessed trends in individualized affordability over time and by sex, age, and education.

Results: Affordability decreased significantly between 2008 and 2020, with RIP increasing from 1.89% (2008) to 2.64% (2020) (p≤.001), Except for 2008-2010, no significant year-on-year changes in affordability were found. Lower affordability was found among subgroups who have a lower income level: females (versus males), 18-24- and 25–39-year-olds (versus 55 and over) and low or moderate educated individuals (versus high educated). Interactions between wave and education (p=.007) were found, but not with sex (p=.653) or age (p=.295). A decreasing linear trend in affordability was found for moderately (p=.041) and high-educated (p=.025), but not for low-educated individuals (p=.149).

Conclusions: Cigarettes in the Netherlands have become less affordable between 2008 and 2020, yet this was mostly due to the decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. There is a need for more significant increases in tax to further decrease affordability.

Implications: Our findings suggest that cigarettes have become less affordable in the Netherlands between 2008 and 2020. But this appears to be the result of a steep decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. Affordability was lower among groups who have on average lower incomes (females, young adults, low- and moderate educated individuals), and differences in trends across education levels could be explained by per capita income changes. Our individualized measure indicated lower affordability than published aggregate affordability estimations. Future tax increases should be large enough to result in a lower affordability.

Citation

Seo, H.G., Xu, S.S., Li, G., Gravely, S., Quah, A.C.K., Lee, S., Lim, S., Cho, S., Kim, Y., Lee, E.S., Choi, Y.J., Miller, C., Goniewicz, M.L., O’Connor, R.J., Fong, G.T. (2023). Reasons for initiation and regular use of heated tobacco products among current and former smokers in South Korea: Findings from the 2020 ITC Korea Survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 40(6), 49-63. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20064963

Abstract

South Korea is the world’s second-largest heated tobacco product (HTP) market after Japan. HTP sales in South Korea have increased rapidly since May 2017, accounting for 10.6% of the total tobacco market in 2020. Despite this, little is known as to why HTP consumers who were current and former smokers started using HTPs and used them regularly. We analyzed cross-sectional data for 1815 adults (aged 19+) who participated in the 2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Korea Survey, of whom 1650 were HTP-cigarette consumers (those who reported smoking cigarettes and using HTPs ≥ weekly) and 165 were exclusive HTP consumers (using HTPs ≥ weekly) who were former or occasional smokers (smoking cigarette < weekly). Respondents were asked to report the reason(s) they used HTPs, with 25 possible reasons for HTP-cigarette consumers and 22 for exclusive HTP consumers. The most common reasons for initiating HTP use among all HTP consumers were out of curiosity (58.9%), family and friends use HTPs (45.5%), and they like the HTP technology (35.9%). The most common reasons for regularly using HTPs among all HTP consumers were that they were less smelly than cigarettes (71.3%), HTPs are less harmful to own health than cigarettes (48.6%), and stress reduction (47.4%). Overall, 35.4% of HTP-cigarette consumers reported using HTPs to quit smoking, 14.7% to reduce smoking but not to quit, and 49.7% for other reasons besides quitting or reducing smoking. In conclusion, several common reasons for initiating and regularly using HTPs were endorsed by all HTP consumers who were smoking, had quit smoking completely, or occasionally smoked. Notably, only about one-third of HTP-cigarette consumers said they were using HTPs to quit smoking, suggesting that most had no intention of using HTPs as an aid to quit smoking in South Korea.

Citation

Kaai, S.C., Sansone, G., Meng, G., Ong’ang’o, J., Goma, F., Ikamari, L., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G. (2023). Quasi-experimental evaluation of Kenya’s pictorial health warnings versus Zambia’s single text-only warning: Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project. Tobacco Control, 32(2), 139-145. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol 2020 056396.

Abstract

Background: Population studies in mostly high-income countries have shown that pictorial health warnings (PHWs) are much more effective than text-only warnings. This is the first quasi-experimental evaluation of the introduction of PHWs in Africa, comparing the change from text-only to PHWs in Kenya to the unchanged text-only health warning in Zambia.

Methods: Data were from International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Kenya (n=1495), and Zambia (n=1628), cohort surveys of nationally representative samples of adult smokers in each country. The ITC Kenya Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2018 (2 years after the 2016 introduction of three PHWs). The ITC Zambia Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2014 with no change to the single text-only warning. Validated indicators of health warning effectiveness (HWIs) (salience: noticing, reading; cognitive reactions: thinking about health risks, thinking about quitting; and behavioural reactions: avoiding warnings; forgoing a cigarette because of the warnings), and a summary measure-the Labels Impact Index (LII)-measured changes in warning impact between the two countries.

Results: PHWs implemented in Kenya led to a significant increase in all HWIs and the LII, compared with the text-only warning in Zambia. The failure to implement PHWs in Zambia led to a substantial missed opportunity to increase warning effectiveness (eg, an estimated additional 168 392 smokers in Zambia would have noticed the warnings).

Conclusions: The introduction of PHWs in Kenya substantially increased the effectiveness of warnings. These results provide strong empirical support for 34 African countries that still have text-only warnings, of which 31 are Parties of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and are thus obligated to implement PHWs.