Citation

Balmford, J., Swift, E., Borland, R. (2014). Reported planning before and after quitting and quit success: Retrospective data from the ITC 4-Country Survey. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours, 28(3), 899-906

Abstract

Planning before quitting smoking is widely believed to be beneficial and is usually recommended in cessation counseling, but there is little evidence on the efficacy of specific planning activities. Using data from 1140 respondents who reported quit attempts at Wave 8 of the ITC 4-Country Survey, we analyzed use of 8 specific planning strategies before (5) and after (3) implementation of a quit attempt, in relation to cessation outcomes, delay in implementation of the attempt, and recent quitting history. Most participants reported some planning both before and after quitting, even among those reporting quitting ‘spontaneously.’ Younger smokers, those who cut down before quitting, and users of stop-smoking medication were more likely to report planning. Those who planned prequit were also more likely to plan postquit. Unexpectedly, we found no clear benefit of planning on short-term (1 month) cessation outcomes, whereas one prequit strategy (practicing not smoking) was negatively related to outcome. There was evidence for a predicted moderating effect of recent quitting experience on planning for the prequit task ‘practice replacement strategies.’ This predicted quit success among those with multiple quit attempts in the past year, but failure among those without. This finding suggests that the quality of planning may be critical. More research, particularly on the moderating effect of quit experience, and where measures of planning are collected before outcomes become evident, is needed before clear recommendations can be made on the utility of various forms of planning for the success of quit attempts.

Citation

Hitchman, S.C., Driezen, P., Logel, C., Hammond, D., Fong, G.T. (2014). Changes in effectiveness of cigarette health warnings over time in Canada and the United States, 2002 - 2011. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 16(5), 536-543.

Abstract

Introduction: Article 11 of the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) requires countries to implement health warnings on tobacco products. The Article 11 Guidelines advise countries to periodically rotate warnings to prevent “wearout” of the health warnings. This study investigates potential wearout of cigarette health warnings over a period of 9 years in 2 countries: Canada, where larger pictorial warnings were implemented approximately 1 year prior to the study, and in the United States, where small text-only warnings were in place for 17 years at the beginning of the study.

Methods: Data were drawn from national samples of smokers from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Canada (N = 5,309), and the United States (N = 6,412) recruited originally by telephone using random digit dialing. Changes in 4 measures of health warning effectiveness and in a composite Labels Impact Index were examined over 8 waves of survey data (2002-2011). Analyses were conducted in 2012.

Results: The health warning effectiveness measures and the Labels Impact Index indicated that the effectiveness of both the Canadian, and the U.S. warnings declined significantly over time. The Canadian warnings showed greater declines in effectiveness than the U.S. warnings, likely due to the initial novelty of the Canadian warnings. Despite the greater decline in Canada, the Canadian pictorial warnings were significantly more effective than the U.S. text-only warnings throughout the study.

Conclusions: Health warnings decline in effectiveness over time. Health warnings on tobacco products should be changed periodically to maintain effectiveness.

Citation

Li, L., Borland, R., Fong, G.T., Thrasher, J.F., Hammond, D., Cummings, K.M. (2013). Impact of point-of-sale tobacco display bans: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. Health Education Research, 28(5), 898-910.

Abstract

This study examined the impact of point-of-sale (POS) tobacco marketing restrictions in Australia and Canada, in relation to the United Kingdom and the United States where there were no such restrictions during the study period (2006–10). The data came from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey, a prospective multi-country cohort survey of adult smokers. In jurisdictions where POS display bans were implemented, smokers’ reported exposure to tobacco marketing declined markedly. From 2006 to 2010, in Canada, the percentages noticing POS tobacco displays declined from 74.1 to 6.1% [adjusted odds ratio (OR)¼0.26, P<0.001]; and reported exposure to POS tobacco advertising decreased from 40.3 to 14.1% (adjusted OR¼0.61, P<0.001). Similarly, in Australia, noticing of POS displays decreased from 73.9 to 42.9%. In contrast, exposure to POS marketing in the United States and United Kingdom remained high during this period. In parallel, there were declines in reported exposures to other forms of advertising/promotion in Canada and Australia, but again, not in the United States or United Kingdom. Impulse purchasing of cigarettes was lower in places that enacted POS display bans. These findings indicate that implementing POS tobacco display bans does result in lower exposure to tobacco marketing and less frequent impulse purchasing of cigarettes.

Citation

Nargis, N., Fong, G.T., Chaloupka, F., Li, Q. (2014). The choice of discount brand cigarettes: A comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control Surveys in Canada and the United States (2002-05). Tobacco Control, 23(Suppl 1), i86-i96.

Abstract

Background: Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This article investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes versus premium brands.

Objective: To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers' choice of discount brands versus premium brands.

Methods: Using data from International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model.

Findings: An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the USA.

Conclusions: The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the USA during 2002-2005 and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands-which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax-may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes.

Citation

Partos, T.R., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Thrasher, J.F., Hammond, D. (2013). Cigarette packet warning labels can prevent relapse: Findings from the International Tobacco Control 4-Country Policy Evaluation Cohort Study. Tobacco Control, 22(1), 43-50.

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the links between health warning labels (WLs) on cigarette packets and relapse among recently quit smokers.

Design: Prospective longitudinal cohort survey.

Setting: Australia, Canada, the UK and the USA.

Participants: 1936 recent ex-smokers (44.4% male) from one of the first six waves (2002–2007) of the International Tobacco Control 4-Country policy evaluation survey, who were followed up in the next wave.

Main outcome measures: Whether participants had relapsed at follow-up (approximately 1 year later).

Results: In multivariate analysis, very frequent noticing of WLs among ex-smokers was associated with greater relapse 1 year later (OR: 1.52, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.09, p<0.01), but this effect disappeared after controlling for urges to smoke and self-efficacy (OR: 1.29, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.80, p=0.135). In contrast, reporting that WLs make staying quit ‘a lot’ more likely (compared with ‘not at all’ likely) was associated with a lower likelihood of relapse 1 year later (OR: 0.65, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.86, p<0.01) and this effect remained robust across all models tested, increasing in some.

Conclusions: This study provides the first longitudinal evidence that health warnings can help ex-smokers stay quit. Once the authors control for greater exposure to cigarettes, which is understandably predictive of relapse, WL effects are positive. However, it may be that ex-smokers need to actively use the health consequences that WLs highlight to remind them of their reasons for quitting, rather than it being something that happens automatically. Ex-smokers should be encouraged to use pack warnings to counter urges to resume smoking. Novel warnings may be more likely to facilitate this.

Citation

McKee, S., Young-Wolff, K.C., Harrison, E.L., Cummings, K.M., Borland, R., Kahler, C.W., Fong, G.T., Hyland, A. (2013). Longitudinal associations between smoking cessation medications and alcohol consumption among smokers in the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. Alcoholism Clinical and Experimental Research, 37(5), 804-810.

Abstract

Background: Available evidence suggests that quitting smoking does not alter alcohol consumption. However, smoking cessation medications may have a direct impact on alcohol consumption independent of any effects on smoking cessation. Using an international longitudinal epidemiological sample of smokers, we evaluated whether smoking cessation medications altered alcohol consumption independent of quitting smoking.

Methods: Longitudinal data were analyzed from the International Tobacco Control Four Country (ITC-4) Survey between 2007 and 2008, a telephone survey of nationally representative samples of smokers from the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and the United States (n = 4,995). Quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption, use of smoking cessation medications (varenicline, nicotine replacement [NRT], and no medications), and smoking behavior were assessed across 2 yearly waves. Controlling for baseline drinking and changes in smoking status, we evaluated whether smoking cessation medications were associated with reduced alcohol consumption.

Results: Varenicline was associated with a reduced likelihood of any drinking compared with nicotine replacement (OR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.34 to 0.94), and consuming alcohol once a month or more compared to nicotine replacement (OR = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.69) or no medication (OR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.99). Nicotine replacement was associated with an increased likelihood of consuming alcohol once a month or more compared to no medication (OR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.25). Smoking cessation medications were not associated with more frequent drinking (once a week or more) or typical quantity consumed per episode. Medication effects on drinking frequency were independent of smoking cessation.

Conclusions: This epidemiological investigation demonstrated that varenicline was associated with a reduced frequency of alcohol consumption. Continued work should clarify under what conditions nicotine replacement therapies may increase or decrease patterns of alcohol consumption.

Citation

Adkison, S., O’Connor, R.J., Bansal-Travers, M., Hyland, A., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., McNeill, A., Thrasher, J.F., Hammond, D., Fong, G.T. (2013). Electronic nicotine delivery systems: International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 44(3), 207-215.

Abstract

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) initially emerged in 2003 and have since become widely available globally, particularly over the Internet.

Purpose: Data on ENDS usage patterns are limited. The current paper examines patterns of ENDS awareness, use, and product-associated beliefs among current and former smokers in four countries.

Methods: Data come from Wave 8 of the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, collected July 2010 to June 2011 and analyzed through June 2012. Respondents included 5939 current and former smokers in Canada (n_1581); the U.S. (n_1520); the United Kingdom (UK; n_1325); and Australia (n_1513).

Results: Overall, 46.6% were aware of ENDS (U.S.: 73%, UK: 54%, Canada: 40%, Australia: 20%); 7.6% had tried ENDS (16% of those aware of ENDS); and 2.9% were current users (39% of triers). Awareness of ENDS was higher among younger, non-minority smokers with higher incomes who were heavier smokers. Prevalence of trying ENDS was higher among younger, nondaily smokers with a high income and among those who perceived ENDS as less harmful than traditional cigarettes. Current use was higher among both nondaily and heavy (_20 cigarettes per day) smokers. In all, 79.8% reported using ENDS because they were considered less harmful than traditional cigarettes; 75.4% stated that they used ENDS to help them reduce their smoking; and 85.1% reported using ENDS to help them quit smoking.

Conclusions: Awareness of ENDS is high, especially in countries where they are legal (i.e., the U.S. and UK). Because trial was associated with nondaily smoking and a desire to quit smoking, ENDS may have the potential to serve as a cessation aid.

Citation

Partos, T.R., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Hyland, A., Cummings, K.M. (2013). The quitting rollercoaster: How recent quitting history affects future cessation outcomes (data from the International Tobacco Control 4-Country Cohort Study). Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 15(9), 1578-1587.

Abstract

Introduction: Most smokers have a history of unsuccessful quit attempts. This study used data from 7 waves (2002–2009) of the International Tobacco Control 4-country cohort study to examine the role of smokers’ quitting history (e.g., recency, length, and number of previous quit attempts) on their subsequent likelihood of making a quit attempt and achieving at least 6 months of sustained abstinence.

Methods: Generalized estimating equations were used, allowing for estimation of relationships between variables across repeated observations while controlling for correlations from multiple responses by the same individual (29,682 observations from 13,417 individuals).

Results: The likelihood of a future quit attempt increased independently with recency and number of prior attempts. By contrast, the likelihood of achieving sustained abstinence of at least 6 months was reduced for smokers with a failed quit attempt within the last year (15.1% vs. 27.1% for those without, p < .001). Two or more failed attempts (vs. only one) in the previous year were also associated with a lower likelihood of achieving sustained abstinence (OR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.38–0.85). Effects persisted after controlling for levels of addiction, self-efficacy to quit, and use of stop-smoking medications.

Conclusions: There appears to be a subset of smokers who repeatedly attempt but fail to remain abstinent from tobacco. Understanding why repeated attempts might be less successful in the long term is an important research priority because it implies a need to tailor treatment approaches for those who are motivated to quit but persistently relapse back to smoking.

Citation

Kasza, K.A., Hyland, A., Borland, R., McNeill, A., Bansal-Travers, M., Fix, B.V., Hammond, D., Fong, G.T., Cummings, K.M. (2013). Effectiveness of stop-smoking medications: Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Addiction, 108(1), 193-202.

Abstract

Aim: To evaluate the population effectiveness of stop-smoking medications while accounting for potential recall bias by controlling for quit attempt recency.

Design: Prospective cohort survey.

Setting: United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the United States.

Participants: A total of 7436 adult smokers (18+ years) selected via random digit dialling and interviewed as part of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC-4) between 2002 and 2009. Primary analyses utilized the subset of respondents who participated in 2006 or later (n = 2550).

Measurements: Continuous abstinence from smoking for 1 month/6 months.

Findings: Among participants who recalled making a quit attempt within 1 month of interview, those who reported using varenicline, bupropion or nicotine patch were more likely to maintain 6-month continuous abstinence from smoking compared to those who attempted to quit without medication [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 5.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) (2.12–16.12), 3.94 (0.87–17.80), 4.09 (1.72–9.74), respectively]; there were no clear effects for oral NRT use. Those who did not use any medication when attempting to quit tended to be younger, to be racial/ethnic minorities, to have lower incomes and to believe that medications do not make quitting easier.

Conclusions: Consistent with evidence from randomized controlled trials, smokers in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the United States are more likely to succeed in quit attempts if they use varenicline, bupropion or nicotine patch. Previous population studies that failed to find an effect failed to control adequately for important sources of bias.

Citation

Cooper, J., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Hyland, A., Cummings, K.M. (2013). Variations in daily cigarette consumption on work days compared with nonwork days and associations with quitting: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 15(1), 192-198.

Abstract

Introduction: We explore whether reported daily cigarette consumption differs between work days and nonwork days and whether variation in consumption between work days and nonwork days influences quitting and abstinence from smoking. We also explore whether effects are independent of measures of addiction and smoking restrictions at work and home.

Methods: Data were from 5,732 respondents from the first five waves of the International Tobacco Control FourCountry Survey, occurring between 2002 and 2006. Respondents were current smokers employed outside the home. Variation in daily cigarette consumption on work days compared with nonwork days at one wave was used to predict the likelihood of making an attempt and the likelihood of maintaining a quit attempt for at least a month at the next wave. Generalized estimating equations were used to combine data for multiple waves.

Results: Just under half reported smoking more on a nonwork day, a little over a third reported no difference, and around one fifth reported smoking more on a work day. Controlling for possible confounding factors, smoking more on a work day was associated with making quit attempts. Among people who made a quit attempt, variation in consumption did not consistently predict one month's abstinence, being positive in Australia, but negative in the United Kingdom.

Conclusion: Those who smoke more on work days try to quit more. Country differences for success may be related to the extent of bans on smoking, with those smoking more on work days more likely to succeed where bans in workplaces and public places were more prevalent, such as Australia at the time.

Citation

Adkison, S., O’Connor, R.J., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Hammond, D., Fong, G.T. (2013). Impact of reduced ignition propensity cigarette regulation on consumer smoking behavior and quit intentions: Evidence from 6 waves (2004–11) of the ITC Four Country Survey. Tobacco Induced Diseases, 11(1), 26.

Abstract

Background: Although on the decline, smoking-related fires remain a leading cause of fire death in the United States and United Kingdom and account for over 10% of fire-related deaths worldwide. This has prompted lawmakers to enact legislation requiring manufacturers to implement reduced ignition propensity (RIP) safety standards for cigarettes. The current research evaluates how implementation of RIP safety standards in different countries influenced smokers’ perceptions of cigarette selfextinguishment, frequency of extinguishment, and the impact on consumer smoking behaviors, including cigarettes smoked per day and planning to quit.

Methods: Participants for this research come from Waves 3 through 8 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey conducted longitudinally from 2004 through 2011 in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada.

Results: Perceptions of cigarette self-extinguishment and frequency of extinguishment increased concurrently with an increase in the prevalence of RIP safety standards for cigarettes. Presence of RIP safety standards was also associated with a greater intention to quit smoking, but was not associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day. Intention to quit was higher among those who were more likely to report that their cigarettes self-extinguish sometimes and often, but we found no evidence of an interaction between frequency of extinguishment and RIP safety standards on quit intentions.

Conclusions: Overall, because these standards largely do not influence consumer smoking behavior, RIP implementation may significantly reduce the number of cigarette-related fires and the associated death and damages. Further research should assess how implementation of RIP safety standards has influenced smoking-related fire incidence, deaths, and other costs associated with smoking-related fires.

Citation

Caleyachetty, A., Lewis, S., McNeill, A., Leonardi-Bee, J. (2012). Struggling to make ends meet: Exploring pathways to understand why smokers in financial difficulties are less likely to quit successfully. European Journal of Public Health, 22(Suppl 1), 41-48.

Abstract

Background: In high-income countries, those with low-to-middle incomes have been observing stagnating median wages and marginal improvements in their living standards. Smokers in financial difficulties appear to be less likely to quit smoking. Understanding the reasons for this is essential to intervening to improve cessation outcomes in this population, and reduce smoking-related health inequalities.

Methods: We used longitudinal data from Waves 4 to 7 of the ITC Four Country Survey (ITC-4), and included those with data from at least two consecutive waves. Associations between financial difficulties and making a quit attempt, and quit success were analysed using generalised estimating equations, with adjustment for confounders. Mediation analysis was conducted to identify potential mediators of the observed effects of financial difficulties on cessation outcomes.

Results: Having financial difficulties had little impact on making quit attempts (adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.01). Smokers with financial difficulties were substantially less likely to succeed at quitting (adjusted OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.76); an effect which was consistent over the survey years. Among the potential mediators examined, those relating to cognition of health-related and quality of life-related consequences of smoking were the most important mediators, though the proportion of the effect mediated by the largest mediator was small (6.8%).

Conclusion: Having financial difficulties remains an important barrier to smokers achieving quit success. This effect does not appear to be due to anticipated factors such as reduced use of cessation services or treatment. Further research is required to determine strong mediators of the financial difficulties effect on quit success and to tailor more effective cessation programmes.

Citation

Fotuhi, O., Fong, G.T., Zanna, M.P., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M. (2013). Patterns of cognitive dissonance-reducing beliefs among smokers: A longitudinal analysis from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Tobacco Control, 22(1), 52-58.

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this paper is to assess whether smokers adjust their beliefs in a pattern that is consistent with Cognitive Dissonance Theory. This is accomplished by examining the longitudinal pattern of belief change among smokers as their smoking behaviours change.

Methods: A telephone survey was conducted of nationally representative samples of adult smokers from Canada, the USA, the UK and Australia from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. Smokers were followed across three waves (October 2002 to December 2004), during which they were asked to report on their smoking-related beliefs and their quitting behaviour.

Findings: Smokers with no history of quitting across the three waves exhibited the highest levels of rationalisations for smoking. When smokers quit smoking, they reported having fewer rationalisations for smoking compared with when they had previously been smoking. However, among those who attempted to quit but then relapsed, there was once again a renewed tendency to rationalise their smoking. This rebound in the use of rationalisations was higher for functional beliefs than for risk-minimising beliefs, as predicted by social psychological theory.

Conclusions: Smokers are motivated to rationalise their behaviour through the endorsement of more positive beliefs about smoking, and these beliefs change systematically with changes in smoking status. More work is needed to determine if this cognitive dissonance-reducing function has an inhibiting effect on any subsequent intentions to quit.

Citation

Brown, A., Boudreau, C., Moodie, C., Fong, G.T., Li, Q., McNeill, A., Thompson, M.E., Hassan, L.M., Hyland, A., Thrasher, J.F., Yong, H.H., Borland, R., Hastings, G., Hammond, D. (2012). Support for removal of point-of-purchase tobacco advertising and displays: Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Canada Survey. Tobacco Control, 21(6), 555-559.

Abstract

Background: Although most countries now have at least some restrictions on tobacco marketing, the tobacco industry meet these restrictions by re-allocating expenditure to unregulated channels, such as at point-of-purchase.

Methods: Longitudinal data from 10 Canadian provinces in the International Tobacco Control Survey was analysed to examine adult smokers' support for a ban on tobacco advertising and displays in stores and whether this support is associated with noticing either advertising or displays in stores, and quit intentions, over time. In total, there were 4580 respondents in wave 5 (October 2006 to February 2007), wave 6 (September 2007 to February 2008) and wave 7 (October 2008 to June 2009). The surveys were conducted before, during and in some cases after the implementation of display bans in most Canadian provinces and territories.

Results: Smokers in all provinces showed strong support for a ban on tobacco displays over the study period. Levels of support for an advertising and display ban were comparable between Canadian provinces over time, irrespective of whether they had been banned or not. Noticing tobacco displays and signs in-store was demonstrably less likely to predict support for display (OR=0.73, p=0.005) and advertising (OR=0.78, p=0.02) ban, respectively. Smokers intending to quit were more likely to support advertising and display bans over time.

Conclusion: This study serves as a timely reminder that the implementation of tobacco control measures, such as the removal of tobacco displays, appear to sustain support among smokers, those most likely to oppose such measures.

Citation

Young, D., Yong, H.H., Borland, R., Shahab, L., Hammond, D., Cummings, K.M., Wilson, N. (2012). Trends in roll your own smoking: Findings from the ITC Four Country Survey (2002-2008). Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2012, 1-7.

Abstract

Objective: To establish the trends in prevalence, and correlates, of roll-your-own (RYO) use in Canada, USA, UK and Australia, 2002–2008.

Methods: Participants were 19,456 cigarette smokers interviewed during the longitudinal International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four-Country Survey in Canada, USA, UK, and Australia.

Results: “Predominant” RYO use (i.e., >50% of cigarettes smoked) increased significantly in the UK and USA as a proportion of all cigarette use (both P < .001) and in all countries as a proportion of any RYO use (all P < .010). Younger, financially stressed smokers are disproportionately contributing to “some” use (i.e., ≤50% of cigarettes smoked). Relative cost was the major reason given for using RYO, and predominant RYO use is consistently and significantly associated with low income.

Conclusion: RYO market trends reflect the price advantages accruing to RYO (a product of favourable taxation regimes in some jurisdictions reinforced by the enhanced control over the amount of tobacco used), especially following the impact of the Global Financial Crisis; the availability of competing low-cost alternatives to RYO; accessibility of duty-free RYO tobacco; and tobacco industry niche marketing strategies. If policy makers want to ensure that the RYO option does not inhibit the fight to end the tobacco epidemic, especially amongst the disadvantaged, they need to reduce the price advantage, target additional health messages at (young) RYO users, and challenge niche marketing of RYO by the industry.

Citation

Borland, R., Partos, T.R., Cummings, K.M. (2012). Systematic biases in cross-sectional community studies may underestimate the effectiveness of stop-smoking medications. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 14(12), 1483-1487.

Abstract

Introduction: Randomized, controlled trials typically indicate stop-smoking medications (SSMs: e.g., Varenicline, Bupropion, and over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapies) to be effective, whereas cross-sectional community-based studies have found them to be less effective, ineffective, or even associated with higher risk of relapse. Consequently, some critics have suggested SSMs have no useful applications in “real-world” settings. This discrepancy may, however, be due to systematic biases affecting cross-sectional survey outcomes. Namely, failed quit attempts where SSMs were used may be better recalled than failed unassisted attempts. Moreover, smokers who choose to quit using SSMs may be more addicted and thus less likely to succeed. Either of these factors would lead to an overrepresentation of failed quit attempts among SSM users in cross-sectional surveys even if there were real benefits.

Methods: We report on data from the International Tobacco Control 4-country cohort study to examine the relationship between SSM use, level of nicotine addiction, and the reported date since the start of participants’ (N = 1,101) most recent quit attempt.

Results: The last quit attempt was reported to have begun longer ago among participants who used SSMs than those who did not. Scores on the Heaviness of Smoking Index, measuring addiction severity, were also higher among SSM users, with no interactions.

Conclusion: Better recall of quit attempts and stronger addiction to nicotine are two characteristics found more often among smokers using SSMs compared with self-quitters, which could potentially bias the assessed effects of SSMs on cessation outcomes in cross-sectional surveys.

Citation

Borland, R., Partos, T.R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Hyland, A. (2012). How much unsuccessful quitting activity is going on among adult smokers? Data from the International Tobacco Control 4-Country Cohort Survey. Addiction, 107(3), 673-682.

Abstract

Aims: To document accurately the amount of quitting, length of quit attempts and prevalence of plans and serious thought about quitting among smokers.

Design: We used longitudinal data from 7 waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Four Country Survey (ITC-4). We considered point-prevalence data and cumulative prevalence over the 7 years of the study. We also derived annual estimates of quit activity from reports of quit attempts starting only within more recent time-frames, to control for biased recall.

Setting: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Participants: A total of 21 613 smokers recruited across seven waves.

Measurements: Reported life-time quit attempts, annual quit attempts, length of attempts, time since last attempt started, frequency of aborted attempts, plans to quit and serious thought about quitting.

Findings: Around 40.1% (95% CI: 39.6–40.6) of smokers report attempts to quit in a given year and report an average of 2.1 attempts. Based on free recall, this translates to an average annual quit attempt rate of 0.82 attempts per smoker. Estimates derived only from the preceding month to adjust for recall bias indicate an annual rate of approximately one attempt per smoker. There is a high prevalence of quitrelated activity, with more than a third of smokers reporting thoughts or actions related to quitting in a given month. More than half the surveyed smokers eventually succeeded in quitting for at least 1 month, and a majority of these for over 6 months.

Conclusions: Smokers think a great deal about stopping and make many unsuccessful quit attempts. Many have been able to last for extended periods and yet they still relapsed. More attention needs to be focused on translating quit-related activity into long-term abstinence.

Citation

Siahpush, M., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T. (2012). Tobacco expenditure, smoking-induced deprivation and financial stress: Results from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four-Country Survey. Drug and Alcohol Review, 31(5), 664-671.

Abstract

Introduction and Aims: While higher tobacco prices lead to a reduction in smoking prevalence, there is a concern that paying more for cigarettes can lead to excess financial burden. Our primary aim was to examine the association of daily cigarette expenditure with smoking-induced deprivation (SID) and financial stress (FS).

Design and Methods: We used data from wave 7 (2008–2009) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four-Country Survey which is a survey of smokers in Canada, the USA, the UK and Australia (n = 5887). Logistic regressions were used to assess the association of daily cigarette expenditure with SID and FS.

Results: In multivariate analyses, a one standard deviation increase in daily cigarette expenditure was associated with an increase of 24% (P = 0.004) in the probability of experiencing SID. While we found no association between daily cigarette expenditure and FS, we found that SID is a strong predictor of FS (odds ratio 6.25; P < 0.001). This suggests that cigarette expenditure indirectly affects FS through SID. Results showed no evidence of an interaction between cigarette expenditure and income or education in their effect on SID or FS.

Conclusions: Our results imply that spending more on tobacco may result in SID but surprisingly has no direct effect on FS. While most smokers may be adjusting their incomes and consumption to minimise FS, some fail to do so occasionally as indexed by the SID measure. Future studies need to prospectively examine the effect of increased tobacco expenditure on financial burden of smokers.

Citation

Yong, H.H., Borland, R., Thrasher, J.F., Thompson, M.E. (2012). Stability of cigarette consumption over time among continuing smokers: A latent growth curve analysis. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 14(5), 531-539.

Abstract

Objectives: This paper examined the stability over time of daily cigarette consumption of continuing smokers and explored factors that might account for the patterns of change in consumption using a latent growth curve (LGC) analytic approach.

Methods: Data come from the first 5 waves of the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, conducted in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia where a cohort of over 2,000 smokers from each country were recruited and followed up annually with replenishment.

Results: Raw data revealed that continuing smokers showed a marked steep decline in cigarettes per day during the first 2 waves followed by a gentler linear decline in consumption over the remaining waves of the study period. This pattern of change in cigarette consumption was best modelled using a piecewise linear LGC model. Baseline consumption level was highest in Australia and lowest in the United Kingdom, although the rate of decline was similar across the 4 countries. Being older than 55 years and having made at least 1 quit attempt were related to greater rate of decline in consumption.

Conclusion: Continuing smokers who are unwilling or unable to quit smoking can and do attempt to reduce their daily cigarette consumption over time. Factors such as making a quit attempt even if unsuccessful and experiencing smoking bans at work and at homes can contribute to reduced smoking among this group, which suggests that interventions focusing in on these factors, along with providing cessation help, may greatly improve their chances of quitting smoking altogether.

Citation

Hall, P.A., Fong, G.T., Yong, H.H., Sansone, G.C., Borland, R., Siahpush, M. (2012). Do time perspective and sensation-seeking predict quitting activity among smokers? Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Addictive Behaviours, 37(12), 1307-1313.

Abstract

Personality factors such as time perspective and sensation-seeking have been shown to predict smoking uptake. However, little is known about the influences of these variables on quitting behavior, and no prior studies have examined the association cross-nationally in a large probability sample. In the current study it was hypothesized that future time perspective would enhance – while sensation-seeking would inhibit – quitting activity among smokers. It was anticipated that the effects would be similar across English speaking countries. Using a prospective cohort design, this cross-national study of adult smokers (N=8845) examined the associations among time perspective, sensation-seeking and quitting activity using the first three waves of data gathered from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC-4), a random digit dialed telephone survey of adult smokers from the United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Australia. Findings revealed that future time perspective (but not sensation-seeking) was a significant predictor of quitting attempts over the 8-month follow-up after adjusting for socio-demographic variables, factors known to inhibit quitting (e.g., perceived addiction, enjoyment of smoking, and perceived value of smoking), and factors known to enhance quitting (e.g., quit intention strength, perceived benefit of quitting, concerns about health effects of smoking). The latter, particularly intention, were significant mediators of the effect of time perspective on quitting activity. The effects of time perspective on quitting activity were similar across all four English speaking countries sampled. If these associations are causal in nature, it may be the case that interventions and health communications that enhance future-orientation may foster more quit attempts among current smokers.

Citation

Borland, R., Li, L., Driezen, P., Wilson, N., Hammond, D., Thompson, M.E., Fong, G.T., Mons, U., Willemsen, M.C., McNeill, A., Thrasher, J.F., Cummings, K.M. (2012). Cessation assistance reported by smokers in 15 countries participating in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey. Addiction, 107(1), 197-205.

Abstract

Aims: To describe some of the variability across the world in levels of quit smoking attempts and use of various forms of cessation support.

Design: Use of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project surveys of smokers, using the 2007 survey wave (or later, where necessary).

Settings: Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, United Kingdom, Uruguay and United States.

Participants: Samples of smokers from 15 countries.

Measurements: Self-report on use of cessation aids and on visits to health professionals and provision of cessation advice during the visits.

Findings: Prevalence of quit attempts in the last year varied from less than 20% to more than 50% across countries. Similarly, smokers varied greatly in reporting visiting health professionals in the last year (<20% to over 70%), and among those who did, provision of advice to quit also varied greatly. There was also marked variability in the levels and types of help reported. Use of medication was generally more common than use of behavioural support, except where medications are not readily available.

Conclusions: There is wide variation across countries in rates of attempts to stop smoking and use of assistance with higher overall use of medication than behavioural support. There is also wide variation in the provision of brief advice to stop by health professionals.

Citation

Li, L., Borland, R., Yong, H.H., Hitchman, S.C., Wakefield, M.A., Kasza, K.A., Fong, G.T. (2012). The association between exposure to point-of-sale anti-smoking warnings and smokers' interest in quitting and quit attempts: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. Addiction, 107(2), 425-433.

Abstract

Aims: This study aimed to examine the associations between reported exposure to anti-smoking warnings at the point-of-sale (POS) and smokers’ interest in quitting and their subsequent quit attempts by comparing reactions in Australia where warnings are prominent to smokers in other countries.

Design: A prospective multi-country cohort design was employed.

Setting: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Participants: A total of 21 613 adult smokers who completed at least one of the seven waves (2002–08) of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey were included in the analysis.

Measurements: Reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings and smokers’ interest in quitting at the same wave and quit attempts over the following year.

Findings: Compared to smokers in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, Australian smokers reported higher levels of awareness of POS anti-smoking warnings, and this difference was consistent over the study period. Over waves in Australia (but not in the other three countries) there was a significantly positive association between reported exposure to POS anti-smoking warnings and interest in quitting [adjusted odds ratio = 1.139, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039–1.249, P < 0.01] and prospective quit attempts (adjusted odds ratio = 1.216, 95% CI 1.114–1.327, P < 0.001) when controlling for demographics, smoking characteristics, overall salience of anti-smoking information and awareness of anti-smoking material from channels other than POS.

Conclusions: Point-of-sale health warnings about tobacco are more prominent in Australia than the United Kingdom, the United States or Canada and appear to act as a prompt to quitting.

Citation

Ross, H., Blecher, E., Yan, L., Cummings, K.M. (2011, February). Predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to future price increases: Findings from the ITC Four Country Study. Poster presentation at the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco Annual Meeting, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Abstract

Introduction: Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior.

Methods: Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes.

Results: The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price.

Conclusions: The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers’ expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

Citation

Licht, A.S., Hyland, A., O’Connor, R.J., Chaloupka, F., Borland, R., Fong, G.T., Nargis, N., Cummings, K.M. (2011). How do price minimizing behaviors impact smoking cessation? Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 8(5), 1671-1691.

Abstract

This paper examines how price minimizing behaviors impact efforts to stop smoking. Data on 4,988 participants from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Four-Country Survey who were smokers at baseline (wave 5) and interviewed at a 1 year follow-up were used. We examined whether price minimizing behaviors at baseline predicted: (1) cessation, (2) quit attempts, and (3) successful quit attempts at one year follow up using multivariate logistic regression modeling. A subset analysis included 3,387 participants who were current smokers at waves 5 and 6 and were followed through wave 7 to explore effects of changing purchase patterns on cessation. Statistical tests for interaction were performed to examine the joint effect of SES and price/tax avoidance behaviors on cessation outcomes. Smokers who engaged in any price/tax avoidance behaviors were 28% less likely to report cessation. Persons using low/untaxed sources were less likely to quit at follow up, those purchasing cartons were less likely to make quit attempts and quit, and those using discount cigarettes were less likely to succeed, conditional on making attempts. Respondents who utilized multiple behaviors simultaneously were less likely to make quit attempts and to succeed. SES did not modify the effects of price minimizing behaviors on cessation outcomes. The data from this paper indicate that the availability of lower priced cigarette alternatives may attenuate public health efforts aimed at to reduce reducing smoking prevalence through price and tax increases among all SES groups.

Citation

Ross, H., Blecher, E., Yan, L., Cummings, K.M. (2011). Do cigarette prices motivate smokers to quit? New evidence from the ITC Survey. Addiction, 106(3), 609-619.

Abstract

Aims: To examine the importance of cigarette prices in influencing smoking cessation and the motivation to quit.

Design: We use longitudinal data from three waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey (ITC). The study contrasts smoking cessation and motivation to quit among US and Canadian smokers and evaluates how this relationship is modified by cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge. Different price measures are used to understand how the ability to purchase cheaper cigarettes may reduce the influence of prices. Our first model examines whether cigarette prices affect motivation to quit smoking using Generalized Estimating Equations to predict cessation stage and a least squares model to predict the change in cessation stage. The second model evaluates quitting behavior over time. The probability of quitting is estimated with Generalized Estimating Equations and a transition model to account for the ‘left-truncation’ of the data.

Settings: US and Canada. Participants 4352 smokers at Wave 1, 2000 smokers completing all three waves. Measurements Motivation to quit, cigarette prices, nicotine dependence and health knowledge. Findings Smokers living in areas with higher cigarette prices are significantly more motivated to quit. There is limited evidence to suggest that price increases over time may also increase quit motivation. Higher cigarette prices increase the likelihood of actual quitting, with the caveat that results are statistically significant in one out of two models. Access to cheaper cigarette sources does not impede cessation although smokers would respond more aggressively (in terms of cessation) to price increases if cheaper cigarette sources were not available.

Conclusions: This research provides a unique opportunity to study smoking cessation among adult smokers and their response to cigarette prices in a market where they are able to avoid tax increases by purchasing cigarettes from cheaper sources. Higher cigarette prices appear to be associated with greater motivation to stop smoking, an effect which does not appear to be mitigated by cheaper cigarette sources. The paper supports the use of higher prices as a means of encouraging smoking cessation and motivation to quit.