Citation

Nogueira, S.O., Fernández, E., Driezen, P., Fu, M., Tigova, O., Castellano, Y., Mons, U., Herbec, A., Kyriakos, C.N., Demjen, T., Trofor, A.C., Przewozniak, K., Katsaounou, P.A., Vardavas, C.I., Fong, G.T., on behalf of the EUREST-PLUS Consortium. (2022). Secondhand smoke exposure in European countries with different smoke-free legislation: Findings from the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 24(1), 85-92.

Abstract

Introduction: Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) poses serious and extensive health and economic-related consequences to European society and worldwide. Smoking bans are a key measure to reducing SHS exposure but have been implemented with varying levels of success. We assessed changes in the prevalence of self-reported SHS exposure and smoking behavior in public places among smokers in six European countries and the influence of the country’s type of smoking ban (partial or total ban) on such exposure and smoking behavior.

Aims and Methods: The EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys were conducted among adult smokers in Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Spain in 2016 (Wave 1, n = 6011) and 2018 (Wave 2, n = 6027). We used generalized estimating equations models to assess changes between Waves 1 and 2 and to test the interaction between the type of smoking ban and (1) self-reported SHS exposure, (2) self-reported smoking in several public places.

Results: A significant decrease in self-reported SHS exposure was observed in workplaces, from 19.1% in 2016 to 14.0% in 2018 (−5.1%; 95% CI: −8.0%; −2.2%). Self-reported smoking did not change significantly inside bars (22.7% in Wave 2), restaurants (13.2% in Wave 2) and discos/nightclubs (34.0% in W2). SHS exposure in public places was significantly less likely (adjusted odds ratio = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.26–0.47) in the countries with total bans as compared to those countries with partial bans.

Conclusion: The inverse association between smoking in public places and smoking bans indicates an opportunity for strengthening smoke-free legislation and protecting bystanders from exposure to SHS in public places.

Implications: Prevalence of smokers engaging in and being exposed to smoking in public places varied by type of smoke-free legislation across six European Union countries in our study; those with total smoke bans reported significantly less exposure to SHS than those with partial or no bans. Our results indicate room for improvement, not only to decrease the prevalence of exposure to SHS in Europe but also to diminish the variability between countries through common, more restrictive smoke-free legislation, and importantly, strong and sustained enforcement.

Citation

Xhao, P., Haziza, D., Wu, C. (2022). Empirical likelihood and the design-based oracle variable selection theory. Statistica Sinica, 32, 1-23.

Abstract

The sample empirical likelihood approach provides a powerful tool for the analysis of complex survey data. We present sample empirical likelihood results for point estimation and linear or nonlinear hypothesis tests on finite population parameters. These parameters are defined using just-identified or over-identified estimating equation systems with smooth or nondifferentiable estimating functions under general unequal probability sampling designs. We propose a penalized sample empirical likelihood for variable selection and establish its oracle property under the design-based framework. Practical implementations of the methods are also discussed. We investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed methods for quantile regression and variable selection using simulation studies. Lastly, we apply these methods to a survey data set from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project to demonstrate the effectiveness of the variable selection method for linear and quantile regression models

Citation

Przewoźniak, K., Kyriakos, C.N., Hiscock, R., Radu-Loghin, C., Fong, G.T. (2021). Effects of and challenges to bans on menthol and other flavours in tobacco products. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation, 7, 68.

Abstract

In May 2020, the European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which bans characterizing flavors in cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) in the European Union (EU), extended its application to menthol1,2. Countries which were early adopters of flavor bans include Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, the United Kingdom (UK), amongst others3. Two main regulatory approaches exist: a ban on characterizing flavors that allows for the presence of additives but not at detectable sensory levels (e.g. EU, UK), and a total ban on flavor additives that eliminates their presence altogether (e.g. Brazil, Canada). As more countries work towards adopting tobacco flavor bans, it is critical to understand how these policies are implemented, ascertain their population-level impact, and identify the regulatory challenges.

Citation

Miller, C., Sutanto, E., Smith, D.M., Hitchman, S.C., Gravely, S., Yong, H.H., Borland, R., O’Connor, R., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T., Hyland, A., Quah, A.C.K., Goniewicz, M. (2022). Characterizing heated tobacco product use among adult cigarette smokers and nicotine vaping product users in the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking & Vaping Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 24(4), 493-502. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntab27.

Abstract

Introduction: Heated tobacco products (HTP) have diversified global tobacco markets, and user characteristics remain understudied. This study evaluated sociodemographic characteristics, nicotine-related perceptions and behaviors of current HTP users within a sample of adult (18+ years) nicotine users across four countries.

Methods: Data were from current smokers or nicotine vaping product (NVP; known as "e-cigarettes") users from Canada, England, the United States and Australia (n=11,421) who participated in the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Current (at-least-monthly) HTP users were characterized (n=441), and weighted multivariable logistic regressions examined correlates of HTP use.

Results: Compared to non-users, current HTP users were younger (mean age: 44.4 vs 31.0 years; p<0.001) and had higher socioeconomic status (p<0.001). A majority of current HTP users used HTPs non-daily (daily: 40.3% vs non-daily: 59.7%). Most HTP users concurrently used both cigarettes and NVPs (90.5%). Among concurrent cigarette-HTP-NVP users, 36.2% used all three products daily. Use of other combusted tobacco products (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe/hookah), cannabis, and binge drinking were each associated with current HTP use. HTP use was more common among smokers intending to quit within 6 months or reporting a quit attempt in the past 18 months, and vapers who had experienced negative side effects.

Conclusion: HTP users in this sample tended to be younger and more affluent. Most reported concurrent use of multiple nicotine products and other substances. Those cigarette smokers who used HTPs appeared more interested in smoking cessation, while some characteristics of concurrent HTP-NVP users were suggestive of dissatisfaction with NVPs.

Implications: Few studies have scrutinized characteristics of HTP early-adopters in emerging markets. Our results indicate that in 2018, characteristics of established nicotine users who adopted HTP use in four high-income Western countries mirror those of HTP users in East Asian markets (South Korea and Japan) where HTPs are popular. HTP users reported high levels of concurrent use of non-cigarette combusted tobacco products (e.g., cigars, pipe tobacco). These findings point to the need for future longitudinal studies of HTP use given the implications of those use patterns on the harm reduction potential of HTPs. HTP user characteristics may yield important information to consider in regulation of these products.

Citation

East, K., Reid, J., Rynard, V.L., Hammond, D. (2021). Trends and patterns of tobacco and nicotine product use among youth in Canada, England, and the US from 2017-2019. Journal of Adolescent Health, 69(3), 447-456. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2021.02.011.

Abstract

Purpose: The tobacco and nicotine market is diversifying. Implications for public health will depend on trends in use, including overall use, and who is using these products. This study examined differences over time (2017–2019), across countries (Canada, England, the United States (US)), and by smoking and vaping, in use of other tobacco/nicotine products and overall use.

Methods: The study includes online repeat cross-sectional surveys of youth aged 16–19 years in Canada (N = 11,714), England (N = 11,170), US (N = 11,838) in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Past 30-day use of tobacco/nicotine products (any, cigarette, e-cigarette, other combusted [cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe], other non-combusted [smokeless tobacco/nicotine replacement therapies) were examined by country, year, and, for other combusted and non-combusted products, past 30-day cigarette smoking and vaping. Use of emerging products (IQOS, nicotine pouches) was explored in 2018–2019.

Results: From 2017 to 2019, use of any product increased in Canada (17.1%–23.2%, AOR = 1.07 [95% CI = 1.04–1.09]) and the US (18.0%–24.0%, AOR = 1.06 [1.04–1.09]) but not England (20.8%–21.7%, AOR = 1.01 [.99–1.03]). Use of other combusted products (cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe) showed little change (Canada: 8.1%–7.8%; England: 6.3%–7.3%; US: 8.6%–8.5%; p ≥ .151). Use of other non-combusted products (smokeless/nicotine replacement therapies) increased in all countries (Canada: 1.5%–3.2%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01–1.02]; England: 1.4%–2.6%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01–1.03]; US: 3.3%–4.9%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01–1.02]). Vaping increased in all countries (Canada: 8.4%–17.8%; England: 8.7%–12.6%; United States: 11.1%–18.5%; all p < .001). Smokers and vapers reported greater use of other combusted and non-combusted products than those who neither smoked/vaped (p < .001). Emerging product use was rare (≤1.5%).

Conclusions: Youth past 30-day tobacco and nicotine product use increased from 2017 to 2019 in Canada and the United States, largely due to increases in vaping and other non-combusted products. “Other” tobacco/nicotine products were used predominantly by youth who smoked cigarettes and/or vaped.

Citation

Li, L., Borland, R., Cummings, K.M., Fong, G.T., Gravely, S., Smith, D.M., Goniewicz, M., O’Connor, R.J., Thompson, M.E., McNeill, A. (2021). How Does the Use of Flavored Nicotine Vaping Products Relate to Progression Toward Quitting Smoking? Findings From the 2016 and 2018 ITC 4CV Surveys. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(9), 1490-1497. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntab033.

Abstract

Introduction: There is limited research on the role of flavors in nicotine vaping products (NVPs) in relation to smoking. We examined patterns of flavor use in NVPs in relation to progression towards quitting.

Methods: Data come from 886 concurrent users of NVPs (at least weekly) and cigarettes who were first surveyed in 2016 and then successfully recontacted in 2018 as part of the ITC 4CV Surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, England and the United States. Participants were asked about their main vaping flavor categorized as: 1) tobacco or unflavored, 2) menthol/mint flavored, and 3) “sweet” flavors (e.g., fruit/candy). We examined whether flavor was associated with progression towards quitting smoking between survey years.

Results: Overall, 11.1% of baseline concurrent users quit smoking by 2018. Compared to users of tobacco flavors, those vaping “sweet” flavors were more likely to quit smoking between surveys (13.8% vs. 9.6%; adjusted OR=1.61, 95% CI 1.01-2.58, p<0.05), but those using menthol flavors were no more likely to quit smoking (8.3% vs. 9.6%, aOR=0.87, 95% CI 0.43-1.47, p=0.69). Among those who had quit smoking in 2018, 52.0% were still vaping, which was lower than the 65.8% among continuing smokers (aOR=0.60, 95% CI 0.39-0.92, p=0.02). Sweet flavor users were no more likely to continue vaping compared to tobacco flavor users, either for those continuing smoking or those having quit smoking by 2018. There was a net shift away from tobacco flavor among those who continued to vape at follow-up.

Conclusions: Use of fruit and other sweet flavored e-liquids is positively related to smokers’ transition away from cigarettes.

Implications: With multiple jurisdictions considering limiting or banning the sale of flavored NVPs, it is important to consider how such policies may impact smokers using NVPs to transition away from cigarette smoking. Our results indicate that vapers who used sweet flavors were more likely to transition away from cigarette smoking and quit cigarette use, at least in the short term, compared to those who used tobacco or unflavored NVPs. Randomized clinical trials are needed to establish if the observed association between use of flavored e-liquids and smoking cessation is due to self-selection or is truly causal.

Citation

Arancini, L., Borland, R., Le Grande, M., Mohebbi, M, Dodd, S., Dean, O., Berk, M., McNeill, A., Fong, G.T., & Cummings, K.M. (2021). Age as a predictor of quit attempts and quit success in smoking cessation: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country survey (2002-14). Addiction, 116(9), 2509-2520. doi: 10.1111/add.15454.

Abstract

Background and aims: Past research has found that young smokers are more likely to make quit attempts; however, there are conflicting findings regarding age and quit success. This study examined the degree to which smoker age is related to making quit attempts and quit success.

Design: Ten waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Cohort survey (ITC-4C) collected between 2002 and 2014, with nine wave-to-wave transitions with predictors at the first wave predicting quit attempts and success by the next wave. Setting: Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

Participants: Data from 15 874 smokers categorized into four age groups at baseline (18-24, 25-39, 40-54 and 55+ years).

Measurements: Age, quit attempts and success (defined as ≥ 30 days abstinence confirmed, if possible, on a third wave for recent attempts).

Findings: Older smokers were more likely to smoke daily (χ2 = 1557.86, r = 0.136, P < 0.001) than younger smokers. Daily smokers were less likely to report quit attempts (38.1 versus 58.2%) and to achieve 30 days of abstinence (22.9 versus 34.3%) than non-daily smokers. Older daily smokers were less likely to make quit attempts [0.61, confidence interval (CI) = 0.54-0.70, P < 0.001], even after controlling for indicators of nicotine dependence, country, sex, education, income, relationship status and household composition, than younger smokers. Younger smokers (< 25) were more likely to succeed for at least 30 days of abstinence, but only when compared with those aged 40-54 (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.68-0.99). However, when controlling for heaviness of smoking the age effect disappeared. Significant interactions with age were found between age and intention when predicting quit attempts, and age and heaviness of smoking when predicting quit success.

Conclusions: An international cohort study indicates that young smokers are more likely to attempt to quit and appear to have similar levels of success in abstaining from smoking compared with older smokers when controlling for dependence. Quit success in all ages is most predicted by lower levels of nicotine dependence.

Citation

Li, L., Borland, R., Cummings, K.M., Gravely, S., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G.T., Miller, C.R., Goniewicz, M.L., Le Grande, M., McNeill, A. (2021). Patterns of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine use among current cigarette smokers and recent quitters: Findings from the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(9), 1611-1616. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntab040.

Abstract

Introduction: This study explores patterns of use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among adult cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers. Along with cigarette smoking status we explore differences as a function of countries with different product regulations, gender and age.

Methods: Data came from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 3 Survey conducted between February-June 2020. The analytic sample consisted of 9112 current cigarette smokers (at least monthly) and 1184 recent ex-smokers (quit cigarettes ≤ 2 years) from Australia, Canada, England, and the US. Respondents were asked about their cigarette smoking and current use of the following non-cigarette products: combustible tobacco (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe); non-combustible tobacco (smokeless tobacco, and heated tobacco products (HTPs)); and non-tobacco nicotine products (nicotine vaping products (NVPs), nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and nicotine pouches)).

Results: Overall, NVPs (13.7%) and NRT (10.9%) were the most reported nicotine products used, followed by cigars (5.3%), cigarillos (4.2%), and HTPs (3.5%). More than 21% current and recent ex-smokers of cigarettes reported using a non-tobacco nicotine product and non-combustible product, with respondents in England reporting the highest levels of use (>26%). Males, younger respondents, and current non-daily cigarette smokers were more likely to use non-cigarette nicotine products. Notably, 11.6% of ex-cigarette smokers were using other combustible tobacco.

Conclusion: Considerable percentages of current cigarette smokers and ex-smokers use non-cigarette nicotine products, and there are unexpectedly high levels of use of other combustible products by those recent ex-smokers of cigarettes which is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation.

Implications: The tobacco product market has evolved to include new products which add to existing non-cigarette tobacco products creating a much more diverse nicotine market. This brief report provides a snapshot of use of various combustible and non-combustible nicotine containing products among current cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers in four western countries. Our results indicate that use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among these cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers is not low, particularly among males, younger and non-daily cigarette smokers. Use of other combustible tobacco among respondents that recently quit cigarette smoking is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation. Increased emphasis on researching non-cigarette nicotine product use is warranted in tobacco control generally and smoking cessation in particular.

Citation

King, B., Borland, R., Morphett, K., Gartner, C., Fielding, K., O’Connor, R.J., Romijnders, K., Talhout, R. (2021). "It's all the other stuff!" How smokers understand (and misunderstand) chemicals in cigarettes and cigarette smoke. Public Understanding of Science, 30(6), 777-796. doi: 10.1177/0963662521991351.

Abstract

Many people understand chemicals as entities that do not occur naturally, and which are also invariably toxic. Tobacco control messages liberally use the term 'chemicals' to evoke these meanings and create concern among smokers. This may reinforce misunderstandings, potentially leading to smokers making harmful choices. To investigate smokers' understandings of chemicals, we conducted qualitative research using 18 individual interviews and three focus groups with Australian smokers and recently quit smokers. The research was guided by the 'mental models' framework and the recently developed Context, Executive, and Operational Systems theory. We discerned two clusters of mental models: the first cluster focused on combustion as the overarching cause of harm (and were largely consistent with the science) and the second cluster focused on additives as causes of harm. We found most participants displayed limited knowledge of the causes of harm from smoking and some held mutually incompatible beliefs. Most participants believed that cigarettes differ significantly in harmfulness according to whether or not they were believed to contain additives. Only a minority understood that the bulk of the toxicants to which smokers are exposed are combustion products. These findings are directly relevant to tobacco control but also have broader relevance to risk communications about toxic exposures.

Citation

Felicione, N., Cummings, K.M., Gravely, S., Hammond, D., McNeill, A., Borland, R., Fong, G.T., O’Connor, R.J. (2021). “Don’t Know” responses for nicotine vaping product features among adult vapers: Findings from the 2018 and 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(15), 7928. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18157928.

Abstract

Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) have evolved rapidly, and some vapers have difficulty reporting about their NVP. NVP knowledge may be important for providing accurate survey data, understanding the potential risks of NVP use, and assessing legal and regulated products. This paper examines current vapers who responded “don’t know” (DK) regarding their NVP features. Data are from adult daily/weekly vapers in Waves Two (2018, n = 4192) and Three (2020, n = 3894) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Analyses assessed DK responses for NVP features (e.g., type/appearance, nicotine) and consumption. A DK index score was computed based on the percent of all features with DK responses, which was tested for associations with demographics, smoking/vaping status, NVP features, purchase location, and knowledge of NVP relative risks. NVP description and appearance were easily identified, but DK was more common for features such as nicotine content (7.3–9.2%) and tank/cartridge volume capacity (26.6–30.0%). DK responses often differed by vaping/smoking status, NVP type/appearance, purchase location, and country. Vapers who are younger, use box-shaped NVPs, purchase online, and exclusive daily vapers were associated with lower DK index scores. Higher DK index scores were associated with poorer knowledge of relative health risks of NVP use. The diversity of the NVP market and wide variation in how products are used makes it challenging to capture information from users about device features, such as nicotine content and capacity, in population surveys.

Citation

Freitas-Lemos, R., Keith, D.R., Tegge, A.N., Stein, J.S., Cummings, K.M., Bickel, W.K. (2021). Estimating the impact of tobacco parity and harm reduction tax proposals using the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,18(15), 7835. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18157835.

Abstract

Taxes are a demonstrably effective method to suppress tobacco use. This study examined the effects of the tobacco parity (i.e., imposing taxes equally on all tobacco products) and the harm reduction (i.e., applying taxes in proportion to the products’ levels of harm) tax proposals on demand and substitution across products. A crowdsourced sample of cigarette smokers (n = 35) completed purchasing trials with increasing tax magnitudes across different tax tiers in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace in a repeated-measures design. Products were placed in three tax tiers (high, medium, and no tax) according to each proposal’s goal. The results indicated that total nicotine (mg) purchased was not significantly different between the proposals, with higher taxes yielding lower demand. However, as taxes increased, the tobacco parity proposal decreased the purchasing of all tobacco products and increased the purchasing of medicinal nicotine (i.e., the no tax tier). Conversely, the harm reduction proposal resulted in greater purchases of electronic nicotine delivery systems and smokeless tobacco (i.e., the medium tax tier). These findings support tobacco taxation as a robust tool for suppressing purchasing and suggest that differential taxation in proportion to product risk would be an effective way to incentivize smokers to switch from smoked to unsmoked products. Further studies should investigate the unintended consequences of their implementation.

Citation

Levy, D., Sanchez-Romero, L.M., Douglas, C.E., Sweanor, D. (2021). An analysis of the Altria-Juul labs deal: Antitrust and population health implications. Journal of Competition Law and Economics, 17(2), 458-492. doi: 10.1093/joclec/nhaa033.

Abstract

On December 19, 2018, Altria announced an offer of $12.8 billion for Juul Labs, combining the largest U.S. cigarette manufacturer with the largest U.S. e-cigarette company. This deal is currently being challenged by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We consider the antitrust implications. We also consider population health implications, which we argue are essential to a comprehensive analysis of the impact on consumers. Although the FTC antitrust investigation has focused on closed vaping systems, we argue that the relevant market is the broader nicotine delivery product market, which includes all vaping products along with tobacco products. With Altria having a large market share in the key nicotine delivery product submarkets and with important entry barriers, the merger potentially places Altria in a dominant position in the relevant market. In particular, competition in the vaping submarket is reduced, thereby likely to reduce the availability of less harmful alternatives to cigarettes.

Citation

Gravely, S., Cummings, K.M., Hammond, D., Borland, R., McNeill, A., East, K., Loewen, R., Martin, N., Yong, H.H., Li, L., Liber, A., Levy, D.T., Quah, A.C.K., Ouimet, J., Hitchman, S.C., Thompson, M.E., Boudreau, C., Fong, G.T. (2021). Self-reported quit aids and assistance used by smokers at their most recent quit attempt: Findings from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 23(10), 1699-1707. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntab068.

Abstract

Introduction: This study retrospectively describes smoking cessation aids, cessation services, and other types of assistance used by current and ex-smokers at last quit attempt (LQA) in four high-income countries.

Methods: Data are from the Wave 3 (2020) International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Australia, Canada, England, and the US. Eligible respondents were daily smokers or past-daily recent ex-smokers who made a quit attempt/quit smoking in the last 24-months, resulting in 3,614 respondents. Self-reported quit aids/assistance included: nicotine vaping products (NVPs), nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), other pharmacological therapies (OPT: varenicline/bupropion/cytisine), tobacco (non-combustible: heated tobacco product/smokeless tobacco), cessation services (quitline/counseling/doctor), other cessation support (e.g., mobile apps/website/pamphlets etc.), or no aid.

Results: Among all respondents, at LQA, 28.8% used NRT, 28.0% used an NVP, 12.0% used OPT, 7.8% used a cessation service, 1.7% used a tobacco product, 16.5% other cessation support, and 38.6% used no aid/assistance. Slightly more than half of all smokers and ex-smokers (57.2%) reported using any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT or OPT) and/or an NVP, half used NRT and/or an NVP (49.9%), and 38.4% used any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT and/or OPT). A quarter of smokers/ex-smokers used a combination of aids. NVPs and NRT were the most prevalent types of cessation aids used in all four countries; however, NRT was more commonly used in Australia, relative to NVPs, and in England, NVPs were more commonly used than NRT. The use of NVPs or NRT was more evenly distributed in Canada and the US.

Conclusions: It appears that many smokers are still trying to quit unassisted, rather than utilizing cessation aids or other forms of assistance. Of those who did use assistance, NRT and NVPs were the most common method, which appears to suggest that nicotine substitution is important for smokers when trying to quit smoking.

Citation

Edwards, R., Johnson, E., Stanley, J., Waa, A., Ouimet, J., Fong, G.T. (2021). Support for New Zealand’s Smokefree 2025 goal and key measures to achieve it: Findings from the ITC New Zealand Survey. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 45(6), 554-561 .

Abstract

Objectives: To assess support among smokers and recent quitters for the Smokefree New Zealand (NZ) 2025 goal and measures to facilitate its achievement. Methods: Data from CATI interviews with 1,155 (386 Māori) smokers and recent quitters in Wave 1 (August 2016–April 2017) and 1,020 (394 Māori) in Wave 2 (June–December 2018) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) NZ Survey. Results: (Wave 2 unless stated): Almost all (95%) participants were aware of and more than half (56%) supported the smokefree goal. Support was highest (69–92%) for measures to reduce smoking uptake and protect children from exposure to secondhand smoke. Support was also high for other smokefree policies including mandated denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products (73%) and tobacco retailer licensing (70%, Wave 1). Support was lowest (<30%) for increasing the tobacco tax, but higher (59%) if additional revenue raised was used to help smokers to quit. Support for Smokefree 2025 and key measures to achieve it was generally higher among ex-smokers than smokers but mostly similar among Māori and non-Māori participants. Conclusions: There is substantial support among smokers and ex-smokers for the Smokefree 2025 goal and many measures that could help achieve it. Implications for public health: Implementing a comprehensive strategy to achieve Smokefree 2025 is likely to be acceptable among New Zealand's smokers and ex-smokers.

Citation

Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Zavala-Arciniega, L., Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M., Sáenz de Miera-Juárez, B., Yuan, Z., Li, Y., Lau, Y.K., Fleischer, N.L., Meza, R., Thrasher, J.F., Levy, D.T. (2021). The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking. PLoS One, 16(6), e0248215. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248215.

Abstract

Background: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico.

Methods: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels.

Results: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15–44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending.

Conclusions: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.

Citation

King, B., Borland, R., Le Grande, M., O’Connor, R.J., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Hatsukami, K., Cummings, K.M. (2021). Smokers’ awareness of filter ventilation, and how they believe it affects them: Findings from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Tobacco Control, [Published online June 15, doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056134].

Abstract

Background: Filter ventilation creates sensations of ‘lightness’ or ‘smoothness’ and is also highly effective for controlling machine-tested yields of tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide. Nearly all factory-made cigarettes (FMC) now have filter ventilation in countries such as Australia, Canada, the UK and the USA. Research conducted before ‘light’ and ‘mild’ labelling was banned found low smoker awareness of filter ventilation and its effects. This study explores current levels of awareness of filter ventilation and current understanding of its effects in these four countries.

Methods: We used data from the 2018 wave of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey with samples from USA, England, Canada and Australia. Analyses were conducted initially on a weighted sample of 11 844, and subsequently on 7541 daily FMC smokers.

Findings: Only 40.3% of all respondents reported being aware of filter ventilation. Among daily FMC smokers, only 9.4% believed their cigarettes had filter ventilation. Believing that their usual cigarettes are smoother was positively associated with believing they are also less harmful. Both these beliefs independently predict believing their cigarettes are ventilated (smoother OR=1.97 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.59) and less harmful OR=2.41 (95% CI 1.66 to 3.49) in relation to those believing each characteristic is average.

Interpretation: Awareness of filter ventilation is currently low, despite decades of public ‘education efforts around the misleading nature of ‘light’ and ‘mild” descriptors. Few smokers realise that their cigarettes almost certainly are vented. Smokers who believed their cigarettes have filter ventilation were more likely to believe they were both smoother and less harmful. Awareness of the technology appears to be insufficient to prevent smokers being deceived by it. Filter ventilation is inherently misleading to smokers and it is time to ban it.

Citation

Gravely, S., Craig, L., Cummings, K.M., Ouimet, J., Loewen, R., Martin, N., Chung-Hall, J., Driezen, P., Hitchman, S.C., McNeill, A., Hyland, A., Quah, A.C.K., O’Connor, R.J., Borland, R., Thompson, M.E., Boudreau, C., Fong, G.T. (2021). Smokers’ cognitive and behavioural reactions during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: Findings from the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. PLoS One, 16(6), e0252427. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252427.

July 14, 2021 | Press Release from University of Waterloo: Unlike other global crises, COVID-19 pandemic did not spark more smoking in its initial stage

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory illness, and smoking adversely impacts the respiratory and immune systems; this confluence may therefore incentivize smokers to quit. The present study, conducted in four high-income countries during the first global wave of COVID-19, examined the association between COVID-19 and: (1) thoughts about quitting smoking; (2) changes in smoking (quit attempt, reduced or increased smoking, or no change); and (3) factors related to a positive change (making a quit attempt or reducing smoking) based on an adapted framework of the Health Belief Model.

Methods: This cross-sectional study included 6,870 adult smokers participating in the Wave 3 (2020) ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey conducted in Australia, Canada, England, and United States (US). These four countries had varying responses to the pandemic by governments and public health, ranging from advising voluntary social distancing to implementing national and subnational staged lockdowns. Considering these varying responses, and the differences in the number of confirmed cases and deaths (greatest in England and the US and lowest in Australia), smoking behaviours related to COVID-19 may have differed between countries. Other factors that may be related to changes in smoking because of COVID-19 were also explored (e.g., sociodemographics, nicotine dependence, perceptions about personal and general risks of smoking on COVID-19). Regression analyses were conducted on weighted data.

Results: Overall, 46.7% of smokers reported thinking about quitting because of COVID-19, which differed by country (p<0.001): England highest (50.9%) and Australia lowest (37.6%). Thinking about quitting smoking because of COVID-19 was more frequent among: females, ethnic minorities, those with financial stress, current vapers, less dependent smokers (non-daily and fewer cigarettes smoked/day), those with greater concern about personal susceptibility of infection, and those who believe COVID-19 is more severe for smokers. Smoking behaviour changes due to COVID-19 were: 1.1% attempted to quit, 14.2% reduced smoking, and 14.6% increased smoking (70.2% reported no change). Positive behaviour change (tried to quit/reduced smoking) was reported by 15.5% of smokers, which differed by country (p = 0.02), where Australia had significantly lower rates than the other three countries. A positive behavioural smoking change was more likely among smokers with: lower dependence, greater concern about personal susceptibility to infection, and believing that COVID-19 is more severe for smokers.

Conclusions: Though nearly half of smokers reported thinking about quitting because of COVID-19, the vast majority did not change their smoking behaviour. Smokers were more likely to try and quit or reduce their smoking if they had greater concern about susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 related to smoking. Smokers in Australia were least likely to reduce or try to quit smoking, which could be related to the significantly lower impact of COVID-19 during the early phase of the pandemic, relative to the other countries.

Citation

Freitas Lemos, R, Stein, J.S., Pope, D.A., Brown, J., Feinstein, M, Stamborski, KM, Tegge, A.N., Heckman, B.W., Bickel, W.K. (2022). E-liquid purchase as a function of workplace restriction in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 30(3), 371-377.

Abstract

E-cigarette use is prohibited in most smoke-free environments. The effect of this policy on tobacco consumption could be examined using the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM). The ETM allows observation of policy on smokers’ purchasing behavior under conditions that simulate “real-world” circumstances. A within-subject design was used to evaluate the effect of workplace policy (Vaping Allowed vs. Not Allowed) and nicotine concentration (24 mg/mL vs. 0 mg/mL) on tobacco product consumption. Participants (n = 31) completed one sampling and two ETM/workplace sessions per week for 2 weeks. During the sampling session, participants were given an e-cigarette with a 2-day supply of a commercially available e-liquid of their preferred flavor. Before purchasing, participants were informed whether e-cigarette use was permitted. During the four ETM sessions, participants purchased for the following 24 hr, including the 4-hr work shift that started immediately after buying products in the ETM. The workplace session consisted of data entry tasks in a mock office environment. Participants could use any purchased tobacco products during two 15-min breaks. Condition order was counterbalanced. The results show that permitting E-cigarette use in the workplace increased e-liquid purchase on average, but nicotine concentration had no effect on e-liquid demand. Cigarette demand was unaltered across conditions. The present study suggests that allowing e-cigarette use in the workplace would increase demand for e-liquid regardless of nicotine strength. However, it would not change conventional cigarette demand.

Citation

Fong, G.T., Yuan, J., Craig, L.V., Xu, S.S., Meng, G., Quah, A.C.K., Seo, H.G., Lee, S., Yoshimi, I., Katanoda, K., Tabuchi, T. (2021). Achieving the Goals of Healthy China 2030 Depends on Increasing Smoking Cessation in China: Comparative Findings from the ITC Project in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. China CDC Weekly, 3(22), 463-467. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2021.120.

Abstract

Tobacco smoking is the number one preventable cause of disease and death in China, as it is globally. Indeed, the toll of smoking in China is much greater than its status as the world’s most populous country. There is a persistent and continuing need for China to implement the measures specified in the global tobacco control treaty, the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which China ratified in 2005. The theme for the 2021 WHO World No Tobacco Day focuses on the need to support smoking cessation. This article presents findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project cohort surveys in China, in comparison to ITC cohort surveys in two neighboring countries: Japan and the Republic of Korea. These findings demonstrate that smokers in China very much want to quit, but these intentions are not being translated into quit attempts, relative to smokers in Japan and the Republic of Korea. Additionally, about 80% of Chinese smokers want the Chinese government to do more to control smoking. These findings reaffirm the need for China to implement strong, evidence based measures to reduce smoking. The objective of Healthy China 2030 to reduce deaths from noncommunicable diseases by 30% can be achieved by reducing smoking prevalence from its current 26.6% to 20%, and this reduction can be achieved through strong implementation of FCTC measures.

Citation

Freitas Lemos, R., Stein, J.S., Tegge, A.N., Kaplan, B.A., Heckman, B.W., Cummings, K.M., Bickel, W.K. (2021). The Illegal Experimental Tobacco Marketplace I: Effects of vaping product bans. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(10), 1744–1753.

Abstract

Objectives: Banning vaping products may have unintended outcomes, such as increased demand for illegal products. This study experimentally examined the effects of a vaping ban and a flavored vaping ban on the probability of purchasing illicit vaping products, and factors affecting purchasing from a hypothetical illegal marketplace.

Methods: A crowdsourced sample of exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and frequent dual users (n=150) completed hypothetical purchasing trials in an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace under three conditions (no ban, vaping ban, flavored vaping ban). Participants chose to purchase in a hypothetical legal experimental tobacco marketplace (LETM) or illegal experimental tobacco marketplace (IETM). Vaping products were available in each marketplace depending on the condition. Other tobacco products were always available in the LETM. A hypothetical illicit purchase task with five fine amounts assessed the effect of monetary penalties.

Results: Participants from all groups were more likely to purchase from the IETM when product availability in the LETM was more restricted, with e-cigarette users being most affected. The likelihood of purchasing illegal products was systematically decreased as monetary penalties associated with the IETM increased, with e-cigarette users showing greater persistence in defending their illicit purchases.

Conclusions: Restricting vaping products from the marketplace may shift preference towards purchasing vaping products in the illegal marketplace. Nevertheless, penalties imposed on consumer's behavior might be effective in preventing illicit trade. The IETM is a methodological extension that supports the utility and flexibility of the ETM as a framework for understanding the impact of different tobacco regulatory policies.

Citation

Smith, T., Nahhas, G., Borland, R., Cho, Y., Chung-Hall, J., Fairman, R.T., Fong, G.T., McNeill, A., Popova, L., Thrasher, J.F., Cummings, K.M. (2021). Which tobacco control policies do smokers support? Findings from the International Tobacco Control Smoking and Vaping Survey. Preventive Medicine, 149, 106600 .

Abstract

As governments consider policy action to reduce smoking, a key factor in creating political will is the level of public support, particularly among smokers who are most affected by the policies. The goal of this paper is to assess and compare the level of support in Canada, the United States, England, and Australia for five smoking control policies: 1) banning menthol in cigarettes, 2) banning cigarette additives, 3) reducing nicotine in cigarettes to make them less addictive, 4) raising the minimum age to purchase cigarettes to 21 years and older, and 5) requiring pictorial warning labels on cigarette packs (examined in the US only). Data for these analyses come from 8165 daily cigarette smokers who responded to the 2016 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. In all countries, the highest level of support was for raising the legal age for purchase to 21 years and older (62-70%) and reducing the nicotine content of cigarettes to make them less addictive (57-70%). Smokers who were less dependent on cigarettes and those expressing interest in quitting were more likely to support all policies. When asked how they would respond to a nicotine reduction policy, the most common response given was to try the non-nicotine cigarettes to see how they liked them (42-48%), with the next most common response being to quit smoking entirely (16-24%). The high level of support for these proposed policies among daily smokers provides important evidence for policymakers to counteract claims that such policies would be unpopular.

Citation

Levy, D.T., Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Travis, N., Yuan, Z., Li, Y., Skolnick, S., Jeon, J., Tam, J., Meza, R. (2021). US nicotine vaping product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The effect of vaping and tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(9), 4876. doi:10.3390/ijerph18094876.

Abstract

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012–2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5–11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1–13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8–14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4–15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18–44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

Citation

Levy, D., Sánchez-Romero, L.M., Li, Y., Yuan, Z., Travis, N., Jarvis, M.J., Brown, J., McNeill, A. (2021). England SimSmoke: The impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England. Addiction, 116(5), 1196-1211.

Abstract

Background and Aims: Whereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England.

Design: Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP‐related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012–2019 counterfactual No‐NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking‐attributable deaths.

Setting: England, 2000–2019.

Participants: Nationally representative sample of population.

Measurements: England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies.

Findings: Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012–2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model‐predicted No‐NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP‐attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%–22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%–22.2%) for females. The NVP‐attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%–31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%–36.5%) for females ages 18–24 and 18.6% (15.2%–21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%–18.8%) for females ages 25–34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453–199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results.

Conclusions: An indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012–2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.

Citation

Yimsaard, P., McNeill, A., Yong, H.H., Cummings, K.M., Chung-Hall, J., Hawkins, S., Quah, A.C.K., Fong, G.T., O’Connor, R.J., Hitchman, S.C. (2021). Gender differences in reasons for using electronic cigarettes and product characteristics: Findings from the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 23(4), 678-686.

Abstract

Introduction:

Little is known about why males are more likely to use electronic cigarettes (ECs) compared to females. This study examined gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of EC used (device type, device capacity, e-liquid nicotine strength, and flavour).

Methods:

Data from 3,938 current adult (18+ years) at-least-weekly EC users who participated in Wave 2 (2018) ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, the United States, England, and Australia.

Results:

Of the sample, 54% were male. The most commonly cited reasons for vaping in females were ‘less harmful to others’ (85.8%) and in males were ‘less harmful than cigarettes’ (85.5%), with females being more likely to cite ‘less harmful to others’ (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.64, p=0.001) and ‘help cut down on cigarettes’ (aOR=1.60, p=0.001) than males. Significant gender differences were found in EC device type used (χ2=35.05, p=0.043). Females were less likely to report using e-liquids containing >20 mg/ml of nicotine, and tank devices with >2ml capacity (aOR=0.41, p<0.001 and aOR=0.65, p=0.026, respectively) than males. There was no significant gender difference in use of flavoured e-liquids, with fruit being the most common flavour for both males (54.5%) and females (50.2%).

Conclusion:

There were some gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of the product used. Monitoring of gender differences in patterns of EC use would be useful to inform outreach activities and interventions for EC use.

Implications:

Our findings provide some evidence of gender differences in reasons for vaping and characteristics of EC used. The most common reason for vaping reported by females was ‘less harmful to others’, which may reflect greater concern by female vapers about the adverse effects of second-hand smoke compared to male vapers. Gender differences might be considered when designing gender sensitive smoking cessation policies. Regarding characteristics of EC products used, we found gender differences in preferences for e-liquid nicotine strength and device capacity. Further studies should examine whether the observed gender differences in EC use reasons and product characteristics are predictive of smoking cessation. Furthermore, studies monitoring gender-based marketing of ECs may be considered.

Citation

Levy, D., Tam, J., Sanchez-Romero, L.M., Li, Y., Yuan, Z., Travis, N, Jeon, J, Meza, R. (2021). Public health implications of vaping in the USA: The smoking and vaping simulation model. Population Health Metrics, 19(1), 19. doi: 10.1186/s12963-021-00250-7.

Abstract

Background: Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.

Methods: SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.

Results: The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.

Discussion: Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.

Conclusion: The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.